SMRC: Although Socialization Has Not Been Balanced, Ganjar's Electability Is Still Superior From Anies

Ganjar Pranowo (Photo via Central Java Provincial Government)

JAKARTA - Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) stated that Ganjar Pranowo's electability would increase significantly ahead of Anies Baswedan if his recognition rate increased.

The founder of SMRC, Saiful Mujani, said that the results of the analysis of the SMRC December 2022 survey data showed that if the identified level of Anies and Ganjar was the same, the results of their electability changed. Ganjar rose to 52.4 percent, Anies 39.5 percent.

"So, Ganjar has got more than 50 percent according to our predictions in this December survey," said Saiful in his statement, Thursday, February 2.

Saiful added that for the time being, there has been no balanced socialization between Ganjar and Anies.

He said that now Ganjar's position is 43.3 percent while Anies is 40.5 percent. However, if there is a balance of socialization, it is possible that Ganjar will be 52.4 percent while Anies will be 39.5 percent.

"This data shows that judging from the probability, in the second round, Ganjar will be superior," he continued.

Related to this, Saiful reminded that if those who know Ganjar has not developed, the two candidates will be balanced.

Such a strict difference, according to Saiful, is rather dangerous. Political Tennis can heat up in the community. Therefore, he added, it must be anticipated not to be like that.

"Anyone candidate needs a significant vote gap," said Saiful.

On the other hand, Saiful said that his party also simulated three names between Ganjar, Anies, and Prabowo Subianto. As a result, Ganjar and Anies have the potential to enter the second round.

This is because in the past year and a half Ganjar has consistently received the top votes, Prabowo tends to weaken, and Anies tends to strengthen.

From the May 2021 to December 2022 survey, Prabowo tends to decline. From 34.1 percent in the May 2021 survey to 26.1 percent in December 2022.S

"Meanwhile, Ganjar tends to increase from 25.5 percent to 33.7 percent in the same period. Anies also tends to increase even though he is not as strong as Ganjar, from 23.5 percent to 28.1 percent," he said.