As A Result Of The Ukrainian War, Russia Ends In The US Bilateral Nuclear Treatys In 2026

Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. (Wikimedia Commons/CTBTO/Sophie Paris)

JAKARTA - Russia has warned the United States that the final pillar of bilateral nuclear weapons control between the two countries could end in 2026 without a replacement, because of what it says is Washington's attempt to cause "strategic defeat" to Moscow in Ukraine.

Both Russia and the United States still have a nuclear arsenal, which is currently partially limited by the 2011 New START Agreement, which in 2021 is extended until 2026.

However, what happened after February 4, 2026 was unclear, although Washington has indicated it wants to reach a further agreement with Russia.

Asked if Moscow could imagine no nuclear arms control agreement after 2026, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told state news agency RIA: "This is a very likely scenario."

Ryabkov, Russia's top arms surveillance diplomat, said the United States in recent years had ignored Russia's interests and exposed most of its weapons surveillance architectures.

"New START may be a victim of this," Ryabkov said, citing Reuters from RIA January 30.

"We are ready for such a scenario," he said.

His remarks serve as a warning to Washington that his continued military support for Ukraine could cancel a post-Cold War bilateral arms control agreement with Russia.

The United States has supplied more than $27 billion in security aid to Ukraine since Russia invaded the country on February 24, including more than $1600 Stinger anti-aircraft rocket systems, 8,500 Javelin anti-tank missile systems, and more than 1 million 155mm artillery shells.

"All situations in the security sector, including gun control, have been held hostage by the US which led to a strategic defeat in Russia," Ryabkov said.

"We will fight this as hard as possible using all the methods and facilities we have," he explained.

US-Russian talks about continuing inspections under the New START agreement were canceled in the last minute of November 2022. The two sides have yet to agree on a timeframe for new talks.

Russia and the United States, which during the Cold War were limited by a line of arms control agreements, still dominates about 90 percent of the world's nuclear warheads.

The United States said in the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review that Russia and China were expanding and modernizing their nuclear power, while Washington would pursue an approach based on arms control to prevent an expensive arms race.

It is known that the New START Agreement limited both sides to 1,550 warheads on deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine ballistic missiles, and heavy bombers. Both sides met the mid-term limit in 2018.

"The end of the agreement without further agreement would see Russia free to expand its now limited strategic nuclear power, as well as a new intercontinental and regional distancing system that is currently not limited by the Treaty," according to the US Nuclear Posture Review.

"Russia is pursuing several new nuclear-capable systems designed to hold the US or the Allies and their partners at risk, some of which are also not under New START."