JAKARTA - The Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) survey found a shift in support from Prabowo Subianto voters to Anies Baswedan.
In the results of a survey conducted in December 2022, of the 44.5 percent of Prabowo-Sandiaga voters in 2019, 44 percent of them now vote for Anies, 13 percent vote for Ganjar, and 37 percent vote for Prabowo. Meanwhile, there are still 6 percent who have not answered.
"In the past, you chose who, right? Prabowo-Sandiaga Uno is the partner. Okay, he chose 44.5 percent who claimed to choose that. Of the 44.5 percent, where is this distributed now? That's less than what Anies chose. What does that mean? Prabowo's voters had already moved to Anies. Most of them moved to Anies, to Ganjar, it's not too significant," said the founder of SMRC, Saiful Mujani, on the SMRC TV Youtube channel, Thursday, January 12.
Meanwhile, of the 55.5 percent of Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin voters in the 2019 election, as many as 20 percent of them now vote for Anies, 44 percent vote for Ganjar Pranowo, and 22 percent vote for Prabowo. While those who still don't answer are 15 percent.
Furthermore, Saiful explained the factor in increasing Anies' supporters, which turned out to come from Prabowo's voters in 2019.
Based on religious background, of the 87.5 percent of voters who are Muslim, as many as 29 percent chose Anies, 34 percent chose Ganjar, and 27 percent chose Prabowo. There is still 9 percent who have not made a choice.
Meanwhile, of the 12.5 percent of voters who are of other religions, 19 percent chose Anies, 30 percent chose Ganjar, and 21 percent chose Prabowo, another 30 percent did not make a choice.
"In the 2019 (Pilpres), there were 98.7 percent of Prabowo voters with Islamic backgrounds. Meanwhile, 1.3 percent of voters who are not Muslim. Of Prabowo voters who are Muslim, now they are distributed to Anies 45 percent, Ganjar 13 percent, and Prabowo 36 percent, 6 percent have not answered," explained Saiful.
Meanwhile, from Prabowo 2019 voters who are religious in addition to Islam, now they choose Anies with 0 percent, Ganjar with 14 percent, and Prabowo with 75 percent and 11 percent who have not answered.
"So so far, Anies has been identified with Islamic politics, this is quite consistent. At Pak Prabowo also in 2019 the element of strong Islamic sentiment was now replaced by Anies. The Islamic sentiment in the 2019 election was replaced by Anies," said Saiful.
"Pak Prabowo may now live nationalist-nationalist. So it is a bit similar to Ganjar," he continued.
For information, the SMRC survey was conducted on 3-11 December 2022 through face-to-face interviews. The survey involved 1,220 randomly selected respondents (strateted multistage random sampling) with a response rate of 1029 or 84 percent.
The survey population is all Indonesian citizens who have the right to vote in general elections, namely those who are 17 years old or older, or are already married when the survey is conducted.
The survey margin of error with the sample size is estimated at ± 3.1 percent at a 95 percent confidence level (symple random sampling assumption).
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