JAKARTA - Executive Director of Poltracking Indonesia Hanta Yuda AR said the 2024 presidential election is an open space without incumbents. Based on experience in the 2004 and 2014 presidential elections, Hanta said the vice presidential variables greatly determine the chances of victory.
In the Release of the Indonesian Poltracking National Survey Finding entitled "Political Map of the 2024 Presidential Election: Trend of Electoral Power of Political Parties, Presidential Candidate & Vice President" in Jakarta, Thursday 22 December, the electability of SOE Minister Erick Thohir was the highest in the simulation of 20 names of vice presidential candidates with 15.1 percent.
Hanta said that under Erick followed names such as Ridwan Kamil (14.0 percent), Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (11.7 percent), Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno (9.2 percent), Khofifah Indar Parawansa (5.5 percent), Muhaimin Iskandar (5.3 percent), Puan Maharani (3.4 percent), Mahfud MD (2.9 percent), Andika Perkasa (2.5 percent), Airlangga Hartarto (1.9 percent), and other vice presidents whose electability figure is below 1 percent.
"Based on the tendency to be close to political elites and king makers of the 2024 presidential election, according to the Poltracking survey data trend, there are 10 potential vice presidential figures. The findings are that Erick Thohir's electability (16.2 percent) is at the top," said Hanta.
Then, followed by Ridwan Kamil (15.1 percent), Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (12.0 percent), Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno (9.4 percent), Khofifah Indar Parawansa (5.7 percent), Muhaimin Iskandar (5.7 percent), Puan Maharani (4.1 percent), Mahfud MD (3.0 percent), Andika Perkasa (2.7 percent) and Airlangga Hartarto (2.6 percent).
In the latest trend in November 2022, said Hanta, in the electability of 10 potential vice presidential candidates, Erick Thohir's name has increased significantly, while a number of other names are classified as stable, some have even experienced a decrease in electability.
In the map of the distribution/crosstab data on voters for political parties to 10 potential vice presidential candidates, Hanta said Erick received support from four parties such as PDI Perjuangan, Gerindra, PAN, and Perindo.
Hanta explained that PDI-P voters (23.2 percent) tend to be strong with Erick Thohir (30.3 percent), Gerindra Party voters (11.1 percent) tend to split their vice presidential choices between Erick Thohir and Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno (17.6 percent), Muhaimin Iskandar (16.8 percent), PAN voters (4.1 percent) tend to Erick Thohir (20.8 percent), and Perindo Party voters (2.8 percent) tend to be divided between Ridwan Kamil (24.2 percent) and Erick Thohir (21.3 percent).
The findings of the distribution of this survey data, continued Hanta, also show that the findings of the distribution of the 3 strongest presidential candidates to 10 potential vice presidential candidates with the highest number of support / majority, namely Ganjar Pranowo voters (32.5 percent) have the highest voter preferences to Erick Thohir (29.5 percent) and voters Anies Baswedan (29.1 percent) have the highest voter preferences to Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (29.4 percent).
Meanwhile, Prabowo Subianto's voters (27.8 percent) tend to be divided into several presidential candidates, namely Ridwan Kamil (16.8 percent), Erick Thohir (15.9 percent), Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno (15.5 percent) and Muhaimin Iskandar (13.7 percent).
"Other findings, voters who are satisfied (73.2 percent) with the performance of the Joko Widodo-Ma'ruf Amin government, the majority tend to give their choice to Vice President Erick Thohir (19.2 percent). Meanwhile, those who are dissatisfied (19.0 percent) of the majority government's performance tend to give their choice to Vice President Ridwan Kamil (23.7 percent)," said Hanta.
Meanwhile, Hanta said, voters of Joko Widodo-Maruf Amin (44.6 percent) in the 2019 Election, the majority tended to give the choice to Vice President Erick Thohir (22.1 percent), while Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga voters Salahuddin Uno (36.0 percent) tended to be divided between Vice President Ridwan Kamil (22.2 percent) and Vice President Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (18.1 percent).
Regarding the simulation of the presidential-vice presidential candidate pair, Hanta revealed that the presidential-vice presidential candidate pair had not yet been final, but based on the growing political tendencies, from qualitative analysis, some elite information, and information circulating in public spaces, there were several possible potential presidential-vice presidential pairs in the 2024 presidential election.
He said that in the simulation of the first three pairs of candidates, Ganjar Pranowo-Erick Thohir (33.1 percent) was superior to the Anies Baswedan-Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (27.5 percent) and Prabowo Subianto-Muhaimin Iskandar (25.5 percent).
Hanta said this finding is the latest portrait of the political power map for the presidential, vice presidential, and political parties in the survey range 21-27 November 2022. Various possibilities may occur, seeing that the 2024 Simultaneous Elections are still more than one year old. But seeing the tendency of the latest political power maps, presidential candidates, vice presidential candidates, and the strongest political parties, it will lead to several potential figures and parties as recorded in the survey.
"Although the dynamics, events, and political momentum that will take place in the future, still have the potential to change the map of electoral political power," said Hanta.
The Indonesian Poltracking national survey was held on November 21-27, 2022, using a multistage random sampling method. The number of samples in this survey is 1220 respondents with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.
This survey cluster covers 34 provinces throughout Indonesia proportionally based on data on the last voter population, while the stratification of this survey is the proportion of voter sex.
This sampling method improves the representation of the entire voter population more accurately. Data collection is carried out by trained interviewers through face-to-face interviews with questionnaires who have been randomly selected, with 10 respondents for each selected village/kelurahan.
The English, Chinese, Japanese, Arabic, and French versions are automatically generated by the AI. So there may still be inaccuracies in translating, please always see Indonesian as our main language. (system supported by DigitalSiber.id)
