YOGYAKARTA - The political atmosphere ahead of the 2024 General Election in Indonesia is increasingly crowded after the Nasdem Party officially promoted Anies Baswedan to run for the presidential election. The name of another figure highlighted was the Governor of Central Java Ganjar Pranowo after declaring himself ready to become a presidential candidate. The prediction of any presidential candidate is still being made public.
Deni Irvani, Director of Syaiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) predicts that there will be three assessment axes in the 2024 democratic party. The prediction is based on the current map of national political power.
Deni assessed that PDIP still holds the dominance of votes until now. However, in the 2024 presidential election, the party bearing the bull logo will not appear alone. There are three figures who have very competitive and large electability to compete in the election later.
Devi said there were three people who had high electability, namely Anies Baswedan, Prabowo Subianto, and Ganjar Pranowo. The three of them have different degrees of advantage from the survey results of various survey institutions.
The calculation of the possibility of contesting the presidential election has been carried out by SMRC since May 2021. SMRC states that there are always dynamics of the three figures in the survey conclusion. The potential for a partner can be Ganjar - Prabowo, or Ganjar - Anies, or Prabowo - Anies.
In May 2021, the survey results showed that Prabowo Subianto was ranked at the top with a value of 34.1 percent. While Ganjar Pranowo is in second place and Anies is in third place.
However, in October, Prabowo was in second place because his value fell to 27.5 percent. The first order was won by Ganjar Pranowo with a figure of 32.1 percent. While Anies is still in third place.
Based on a survey released by SMRC on Sunday (23/10), the highest support was held by Ganjar Pranowo with a percentage of 32.1 percent. Then in second place followed by Prabowo Subianto with a value of 27.5 percent. Meanwhile, Anies Baswedan occupies the third position with a figure of 26 percent.
Ganjar is superior to the other two names. However, the comparison is quite tight or not far apart. Prabowo's percentage result with Anies Baswedan was only a slight difference, namely 1.5 percent of the votes.
This survey was conducted in the period 3 to 9 October 2022 with speakers Indonesian citizens (WNI) aged 17 years and over. The selection of resource persons was carried out randomly as many as 1220 respondents. Of these, only 87 percent or 1027 people can be asked for valid interviews.
However, SMRC stated that the contestation of the three figures in the 2024 presidential election could not be guaranteed because no one had yet exceeded 50 percent. A total of 14.4 percent of respondents still have not made their choice in the survey. SMRC assesses that there will be two turns in the upcoming elections.
SMRC also simulated the 2024 presidential election contestation from party leaders. The names are Prabowo Subianto, chairman of the Gerindra Party, Airlangga Hartarto, chairman of the Golkar Party, and Puan Maharani, chairman of the PDIP DPP.
Of the three names, Prabowo Subianto occupies the top position with a value of 54.9 percent. In second place is Puan Maharani with 10.6 percent. Meanwhile, Airlangga Hartarto is in third place with 8.8 percent.
Prabowo Subianto got superior votes compared to the other two names. From these results, SMRC assessed that the presidential election would last only one round. If these three figures advance in the election, big Prabowo won the match.
This survey was conducted with resource persons selected to represent the national population of Narasources or respondents, namely Indonesian citizens aged 17 years and over. 1220 randomly selected respondents with a response rate of 84 percent or 1027 people.
That is the map of national political power from the results of the SMRC survey ahead of the 2024 presidential election. Until now, only one party has announced the presidential candidate being promoted. Meanwhile, other parties such as PDIP and Golkar chose not to rush to inaugurate their presidential candidate.
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