Judging By The Electability Of The 2024 Presidential Candidates Based On Recent Surveys From SPIN And SMRC

Illustration - Simultaneous General Elections 2024. (ANTARA)

YOGYAKARTA The electability of the 2024 presidential candidate can be seen from the latest survey conducted by the Indonesian Survey and Polling Institute (SPIN) and Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC).

The electability of the 2024 Presidential Candidates Based on the SPIN Survey

According to a survey from SPIN conducted on October 7 to 16, 2022, the electability of Gerindra Party Chair Prabowo Subianto is still at the top of the survey with 31.6 percent gain.

The findings of the survey results by SPIN were carried out to measure the situation of the 2024 national leadership political constellation after the declaration of Anies Baswedan's presidential candidacy by the NasDem Party in early October.

"Prabowo is in addition to perching at the peak of electability, he has also received an increase in support gain at 31.6 percent," said SPIN Director Igor Dirgantara, quoted by VOI from ANTARA, Tuesday, October 25, 2022.

Meanwhile, Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo has 19.3 percent of the presidential candidate's electability, followed by Anies Baswedan at 11.5 percent.

He said that Ganjar's electability was still struggling and stagnant below 20 percent, while Anies, after his declaration as a presidential candidate by the NasDem Party, actually decreased by 2.7 percent from the electability rate of 14.2 percent in July.

Next, in fourth position is Ridwan Kamil at 9.3 percent. Fifth, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY) with a score of 6.1 percent; sixth, Khofifah Indar Parawansa with a score of 4.2 percent; seventh, Puan Maharani with a score of 2.9 percent; eighth, Muhaimin Iskandar with a score of 2.6 percent.

The ninth, Erick Thohir with a score of 2.2 percent; tenth, Airlangga Hartarto with a score of 1.7 percent; eleventh, Dedy Mulyadi with a score of 1.3 percent; twelveth, Surya Paloh with a score of 1.2 percent.

Then in a row occupied by Andika Perkasa with a score of 1.1 percent, Zulkifli Hasan 0.2 percent. Then Suharso Monoarfa, Ahmad Syaikhu, La Nyalla Mahmud Mattalitti and Secretary Wahyu Trenggono both won 0.1 percent electability.

As for the survey, it was stated that the number of voters who had not made the option (undecidend voters) reached 4.4 percent.

The findings of the 2024 national leadership survey by SPIN were carried out on 1,230 respondents in 34 provinces in Indonesia using the multistage random sampling method.

The survey with direct face-to-face interview data collection techniques using this questionnaire has tolerance or a margin of error of around 2.8 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent.

Electability of the 2024 Presidential Candidates Based on the SMRC Survey

Apart from SPIN, the Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting Institute (SMRC) recently also released the results of the latest survey.

According to the SMRC Survey, Ganjar Pranowo's electability as a presidential candidate is still superior in first place with 32.1 percent.

SMRC Research Director Deni Irvani on Sunday, October 23, 2022, explained the results of a survey in the simulation of three names showing Ganjar's electability at 32.1 percent, followed by Prabowo Subianto at 27.5 percent, and Anies Baswedan at 26 percent. While there are 14.4 percent who have not answered or do not know.

"In the past year and a half, support for Ganjar has increased from 25.5 percent in May 2021 to 32.1 percent in October 2022," he explained, according to ANTARA.

Thus, Ganjar's electability defeated Anies, even though the former governor of DKI Jakarta was declared a presidential candidate by the NasDem Party in early October.

Deni said that it is likely that only three names of candidates will appear in the presidential election because of the 20 percent threshold for DPR seats for presidential candidacy.

Therefore, simulations of the three most competitive names are important to observe, namely Ganjar Pranowo, Anies Baswedan and Prabowo Subianto.

"Prabowo has been nominated by the Gerindra Party and Anies is promoted by the Nasdem Party. Meanwhile, Ganjar in the last six months has always been in the top position according to voters," he said.

This presidential candidate survey is conducted face-to-face from 3 to 9 October 2022. The population of this survey is all Indonesian citizens who have the right to vote in general elections, namely those who are 17 years old or older, or are already married when the survey is conducted.

From that population, 1,220 respondents were chosen by random (stratified multistage random sampling). Response rate of 1,027 or 84 percent, the margin of error for the survey with the sample size is estimated at approximately 3.1 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.

This is the latest information regarding the electability of the 2024 presidential candidate according to a political survey conducted by SPIN and SMRC.