SURABAYA - Cyrus Network survey results show the electability level of candidate pair number 1 Eri Cahyadi-Armudji is superior to candidate pair number 2 Machfud Arifin-Mujiaman. Eri Cahyadi-Armudji has 55.3 percent electability, while MA-Mujiaman 33.8 percent.
"With less than two weeks remaining, it is predicted that it will be very difficult for Machfud Arifin and Mujiaman to catch up," said Chief of Consultant Cyrus Network, Hafizhul Mizan, in a written statement, Monday, November 30.
Paslon Eri Cahyadi-Armudji is said to be dominant in almost all demographic segments. Starting from gender, age, religion, education level, economic level, to the DPRD Electoral District.
Meanwhile the MA-Mujiaman candidate pair only excels in the Madurese voter segment, namely 50 percent choosing candidate pair number two compared to candidate pair 1 which is only supported by 37 percent of the Madurese voting population.
Meanwhile, in terms of popularity (fame), said Mizan, the candidate pair Eri-Armudji is at 68.5 percent or only 7 out of 10 voters who know the candidate number 1.
Meanwhile, the popularity of the MA-Mujiaman candidate pair is 57.5 percent, meaning that only about 6 out of 10 people know this candidate number 2.
"What does it mean, the fame or popularity of the two candidate pairs, is still far from the ideal number (more than 90 percent)," he said.
According to Mizan, this low popularity is still homework for each candidate pair. Given that almost 91.3 percent of residents already know the Surabaya Pilkada vote will be held on December 9.
"Currently, the number of voters is still floating around 10.9 percent," he said.
This survey was conducted on 23-27 November 2020 using the Multistage Random Sampling method with a sample of 400 respondents. This face-to-face survey with Margin of Error (MoE) = / - 5 percent also reads the reasons for voters to choose a candidate pair.
The two candidate pairs were chosen because they were both expected to bring change (21.5 percent), but Eri Cahyadi-Armudji was superior because they were considered more experienced. The bearer party factor also seems to play an important role, namely around 7 percent of the voters Eri Cahyadi-Armudji claiming to come from the same political party they support.
"Meanwhile, 9 percent of voters chose candidate pair 1 on the grounds of being experienced in government, while 2.7 percent of voters considered the Machfud-Mujiaman pair to be experienced," he said.
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