SMRC Survey: If Nyapres Is 2024, The Chances Of Puan Maharani And Airlangga Being Elected Are Very Low

Coordinating Minister for the Economy Airlangga Hartarto (right) and DPR Chair Puan Maharani. (doc of the Coordinating Ministry for the Economy-Instagram @puanmaharani)

JAKARTA - The survey institute Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) released the latest poll on the elite of political parties (parties) which are planned to be promoted as presidential candidates in the 2024 presidential election.

SMRC Research Director, Deni Irvani stated, there are a number of elite political parties that have the potential to be carried by parties or coalitions in the upcoming elections. This is influenced by the presidential nomination threshold of 20 percent of seats in parliament.

SMRC conducted a closed simulation of 5 elite political party names chosen by respondents to become president in the coming period, namely Prabowo Subianto, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY), Puan Maharani, Muhaimin Iskandar, and Airlangga Hartarto.

As a result, Prabowo's name received the most support, amounting to 39.4 percent. Meanwhile, Puan Maharani and Airlangga are in last place with an electability of under 7 percent.

"In the simulation of 5 names of major party figures, Puan's vote stagnated from 5.7 percent in March 2022 to 6.9 percent in August 2022. The same thing happened to Airlangga, from 5.3 percent in March 2022 to 3.3 percent in March 2022. August 2022," said Deni on SMRC TV's YouTube show, quoted on Monday, August 22.

Meanwhile, Deni said that the low electability of Puan and Airlangga if they ran as presidential candidates in 2024 was due to their low likesability and tended to get lower.

Of the 67 percent who know Puan Maharani, only 44 percent say they like it. This figure has decreased in the past year and a half, from 60 percent in March 2021 to 44 percent in the August 2022 survey.

Meanwhile, the level of public recognition of Airlangga is only 38 percent. This familiarity has increased slightly, from 26 percent (March 2021) to 38 percent (August 2022). Of those who know, only 61 percent like it.

“Support for Puan and Airlangga is very low and there is no progress. The chance for both of them to win in the upcoming presidential election is still very small," said Deni.

For information, this survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews on August 5-13, 2022. The total sample collected by trained data collectors reached 1,220 respondents.

The sample was randomly selected from the population of Indonesian citizens aged 17 years and over or already married when the survey was conducted. The survey's margin of error is estimated at 3.1 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.