Saiful Mujani SMRC: The PKB-Gerindra Coalition Is Not The Aspiration Of PKB Voters

Illustration- Political gathering of the DPD of the Gerindra Party and the DPW of the PKB of Central Java Province/ANTARA

JAKARTA - Founder of Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) Saiful Mujani said that the political maneuvering of the National Awakening Party (PKB) and Gerindra to build a coalition was not based on the aspirations of PKB voters or the masses of NU, which is their constituent base.

Saiful Mujani conveyed this in the Political Surgery program episode "Top Down the Gerindra-PKB Coalition?" which was broadcast by the SMRC TV Youtube channel on Friday, August 12.

He said the SMRC survey in May 2022 showed that of the total PKB voters, 40.7 percent wanted Ganjar Pranowo as president. Those who support Prabowo are 22 percent and Anies Baswedan 16.5 percent.

There are two models for determining the coalition, according to Saiful. The first is the bottom-up model. This model listens to aspirations from below, constituents, voters, or interest groups close to the party.

The second model is supply side or top down. In this coalition model, the needs of the community are created by the elite. Seeing the tendency of PKB voters, this shows that the maneuver that is being played by Muhaimin Iskandar and Prabowo Subianto to form a coalition does not reflect the demand side or aspirations of PKB voters, but rather the aspirations of the elite.

However, Saiful stated that politics is often more than just an electoral victory. The target may not be that Prabowo actually wins as president and Muhaimin becomes his deputy, but for other considerations.

For example, he wanted to be listed as a vice presidential candidate which had never happened before. This is a political step that has its own value, said Saiful. And this may also be able to form a party to mobilize.

Saiful sees that Prabowo's submission as a presidential candidate so far also has the aim of party mobilization. Prabowo, he said, has a magnet to move voters.

"The target is not Prabowo to become president, but at least Gerindra's voice is good enough to secure party politicians. Maybe that's the minimum target. I'm grateful if Prabowo becomes president," he said in a press release.

Why do PKB voters tend to choose Ganjar Pranowo over other figures? Saiful saw that this was natural, because sociologically the voters of PKB and Ganjar were close.

East Java and Central Java were the main bases for the PKB voters, and it was these areas that became the basis for Ganjar's supporters.

However, Saiful reminded that Muhaimin had made interesting political actions in the case of the Central Java gubernatorial election. In the election, PKB did not support Ganjar Pranowo, but supported the Sudirman Said-Ida Fauziyah pair.

In this case, Saiful saw that PKB had other considerations beyond winning the pilkada. Therefore, in the case of the presidential election, Muhaimin may again have other considerations outside of winning the presidential election.

"There are other targets that can be achieved through the coalition, not only literally the coalition of presidential and vice presidential candidates, not just to win as a presidential and vice-presidential pair. It's too simple to see the meaning behind the coalition plan itself," said the Ohio State graduate political scientist University, United States of America.

If viewed from the 'demand side' aspect, the PKB coalition should not be with Prabowo Subianto. However, if PKB supports Ganjar, there is no guarantee that its chairman, Muhaimin Iskandar will be promoted as a vice presidential candidate.

"Political enthusiasm like that (to enter the presidential and vice presidential candidates) is a normal thing among politicians," said Saiful.

In addition, PKB also needs to consider the voices and political aspirations of Nahdlatul Ulama.

According to Saiful, there is a very special relationship between NU and PKB. He could not imagine PKB without NU.

Saiful stated that NU's political manifestations could be in the form of many parties or that NU people could be in various parties, one of which was PKB. But it is not the other way around that PKB people can exist in various other mass organizations.

Therefore, it must be taken into account whether the NU mass organization which is the basis for PKB wants the coalition.

According to him again, until now there has been no opinion or opinion from NU figures about the PKB-Gerindra coalition plan.

Saiful asserted that NU officially does not do politics, but that the organization's politics is carried out without institutions, as was practiced by Ma'ruf Amin, Hasyim Muzadi, or Abdurrahman Wahid (Gus Dur).

"Although NU is not politically institutionalized, politics cannot be separated from the lives of NU people," said the Professor of Political Science at UIN Jakarta again.