Mamuju Residents Don't Believe The M 6.0 Earthquake Forecast

One of the houses damaged by an earthquake measuring 5.8 magnitude in Salunanka neighborhood, Rangas sub-district, Simboro Islands district, Mamuju district, Thursday (09/6/2022) ANTARA Photo/M Faisal Hanapi

JAKARTA - The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) Coordinator for Mitigation and Earthquake and Tsunami Mitigation, Daryono appealed to residents of Mamuju Regency, West Sulawesi, not to believe in the forecast for an earthquake of magnitude (M) 6.0.

"Please do not ever believe in the prediction of an earthquake that will occur in Mamuju around Magnitude 6.0. Never believe in an earthquake forecaster. Until now there has been no science and technology that is able to predict accurately and accurately when an earthquake will occur," he said. Daryono in a written statement quoted by Antara, Friday, June 10.

As for disseminating this information, according to Daryono, it will make the forecast more widespread and lead to an influx of refugees which has an increasingly heavy burden on the Regional Government and BNPB, because they have to finance large-scale evacuations that should not be necessary.

Daryono said that the activity of studying, researching, and predicting earthquake research was very good and even considered a noble act because it is for the purpose of developing science/science and reducing the risk of earthquakes and even tsunamis.

BMKG has long conducted earthquake prediction research using geomagnetic anomaly data, radon gas emissions, and so on, and supports anyone who is actively conducting earthquake prediction research.

However, if it is still in the realm of research or research, then you must be able to restrain yourself, for the time being the results are only informed and communicated within the internal limited circle of the study team first, and not to be published for the public or the general public, because it can be disturbing.

"Moreover, the results of the prediction study are disseminated in Mamuju as it is today, where the community is experiencing anxiety, fear, and trauma due to being affected by the earthquake on January 14-15 2021, of course this is not good because it triggers anxiety and fear of residents," he said. .

For this reason, according to Daryono, you should not rush to spread predictive information if the results have not been proven to be accurate and therefore have not been tested.

On the other hand, if a series of trials in earthquake prediction studies have often been carried out and the results are proven to be reliable, precise and accurate, then the results of this study can be published first in several prestigious international scientific journal publications and are globally indexed (Q1).

"Here the results of the earthquake prediction study will be reviewed by relevant experts, both in terms of framework, methods, data, research methods, including the validity of the conceptual/theoretical basis used. Manuscripts must be selected through a series of rigorous peer reviews. If the publication is successful, then the manuscript must be selected through a series of rigorous peer reviews. can then be operationally ratified by the relevant institutions, then the earthquake prediction information can only be operationalized to be informed to the wider community," he said.

Of course, this kind of earthquake prediction information, said Daryono, has been proven to be accurate so it is hoped that it can save our society from the dangers of earthquakes.

"Unfortunately, until now, there are no individual researchers, research groups, or institutions in the world who are able and successfully predict earthquakes with precision and accuracy, so earthquake predictions have not been operationalized, and are not worthy of being informed to the general public," he said.