JAKARTA - Chairman of the Indonesian Employers' Association (Apindo) Hariyadi Sukamdani is optimistic that Indonesia's economy will return to the positive zone in 2021. He projects that national economic growth will be in the range of 2.5 percent to 5.5 percent next year.
Hariyadi said that his prediction departed from the results of observing the conditions of the spread of COVID-19 in the country to date and also predicting the speed of economic recovery next year.
"We estimate economic growth in 2021 is around the lowest 2.5 percent and the highest is 5.5 percent," he said Wednesday, October 21.
However, Hariyadi said, his prediction of economic growth next year really depends on the procurement and effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccine which will be distributed for the first time by the government in November this year.
Furthermore, Hariyadi emphasized that the government and society cannot only hope with the vaccination program. According to him, as long as the vaccine has not been found and injected, the implementation of 3M's health protocol, namely wearing masks, washing hands and maintaining distance must be applied.
"To improve economic activity in 2021, Apindo recommends a number of things to pay attention to. The proper application of health protocols in both private and government work environments will become a new normal not only in the work environment but also in the wider community. Because the key to our recovery is how to control the spread of COVID-19, "he said.
Previously, the prediction of Indonesia's economic growth to enter the positive zone was also conveyed by Chatib Basri. The former finance minister said that, if viewed from the flow, Indonesia's economy had reached its lowest point in the second quarter where it contracted by 5.3 percent.
According to Chatib, Indonesia's economy in the third quarter may still be negative but not as bad as in the second quarter. If conditions improve, Indonesia's economy can enter the positive zone in the fourth quarter.
"If I see if there is no second wave, I am sure that the first quarter of 2021 can be positive. In fact, if the situation is rather good, the fourth quarter of 2020 could be zero or negative," he said, in a virtual discussion, Wednesday, October 21.
Chatib explained that the total economic recovery could not possibly have a shape like V. According to him, the most likely shape was like the Nike logo or another possible shape like the letter U. If there is a second wave, the recovery will be in the form of the letter W.
"But if the second wave did not occur, maybe we would experience a pattern in the shape of the Nike emblem. So touching the lowest point in the second quarter, maybe it is still negative in the third and fourth quarters it might be negative or 0 percent," he explained.
However, Chatib said, the direction of this economic movement was largely determined by how the government handled the COVID-19 pandemic. Because, if a pandemic still occurs, like it or not, like it or not, the government must implement health protocols, to avoid spreading the virus.
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