'The Big Three' Ganjar, Anies And Prabowo Are Still Winners In Various Surveys, But These 3 Factors Can Be Decisive

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JAKARTA - Three names of presidential candidates, Ganjar Pranowo; Anies Baswedan and Prabowo Subianto are still the 'Top Three' in the results of the latest national survey by the Indo Research survey institute. The competition between the three is so fierce that it is difficult to predict who will win the contest in the 2024 presidential election. A political observer from UIN Syarif Hidayatullah, Gun Gun Heryanto, believes that there are three factors that determine victory or the dynamics of the contestation against the names of candidates, both presidential and vice presidential candidates. First, any figure who gains public legitimacy will definitely be considered as electoral capital. "This figure in the emergence phase will carry out political communication work to increase electability and popularity. So this figure will also determine," said Gun Gun in a discussion entitled Election 2024: Potential for Two-Round Presidential Elections online, Thursday, May 19. Second, namely the constellation of internal and external political parties. For example in PDIP, internal candidate selection has not been completed. Even in other parties, according to Gun Gun, there have been no surprises either in Golkar, NasDem or PKS including PPP. "Internally, dynamics are always there. Not to mention externally, there must be reactions with other parties. candidate and declare the name. Is it related to other parties or not," he explained. Third, concerning public acceptance or public acceptance. For example, the big three, namely Prabowo, Anies, Ganjar, there might be contextual dynamics. "If I read to arrive at the process of completing this candidacy mechanism, the road will be long and steep," said Gun Gun. Furthermore, Gun Gun assesses, there are several stages of candidacy. The first stage is the appearance stage for shopping for the name of the candidate who is the most liked by the public. "Second, the nomination stage. It's also not necessarily smooth. This nomination process raises a number of candidacy scheme options. Although candidacy often has a mystery because it often involves economic and political power," he explained. "In injury time, not only the presidential candidate but the vice presidential candidate. Maybe you still remember the appointment of Ma'ruf Amin in injury time then Mahfud had to be canceled from the candidate pair because there were several factors," he continued. The last stage, is the election or electability of the candidate himself to be considered as a candidate. For example, it is offered to the public, officially registered and following the electoral process from the campaign to the election day.

"At least from the patterned approach, there are three factors that affect the complex process of candidacy. The first is the profit scheme obtained by political parties. This scheme is a configuration changer," he said. "Both are the costs of entering the battlefield. The problem is that our politics is high cost. Do not turn a blind eye to the basis of economic power, which often becomes an invisible hand which has a very significant influence. The economic power behind this presidential election is interesting and usually not covered by perception surveys," he continued. Third, is the context of the dynamics of the figure. According to Gun Gun, it's still too premature to say that candidate A will definitely become a champion. "Don't go there, let's just talk about the pair package, be careful because the dynamics are very fluid and the process is determined by the factual situation that develops. Who are the real candidates who have an electoral market, or market niche in a competition ahead of 2024," he said. Previously, the Indo Research survey institute released the results of a survey on the electability level of presidential candidates. From the simulation of 7 names, the Governor of Central Java emerged as the winner with a survey result of 27.4 percent. "Followed by Gerindra Chair Prabowo Subianto with 25.5 percent and DKI Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan with 21.0 percent," said Indo Research expert Roki Arbi in an online survey release, Thursday, May 19. Fourth, there is West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil 5.4 percent, the fifth Ketum Democrat Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono 5.0 percent, the sixth Menparekraf Sandiaga Uno 4.8 percent, the seventh DPR Speaker Puan Maharani 1.3 percent.