According To Calculations, One In Four Of The World's Population May Not Get The COVID-19 Vaccine

JAKARTA - Some of the progress in world vaccine development may have become the hope of ending the pandemic. This hope is shrouded in several questions, such as how effective is the vaccine, how is it distributed, to what is the fair price for the vaccine? What is clear, it seems that a vaccine is not possible for everyone.

Researchers from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in the United States (US) did some calculations. As a result, maybe one in four of the world's population will not get the COVID-19 vaccine. As for vaccines, the closest estimate is at least 2022.

The reason is that so many rich countries - with less than 15 percent of the global population - will spare 51 percent of the most promising doses of vaccine they have. Under those conditions, low- and middle-income countries will have to share the rest of the vaccine.

Yet these poor countries are home to more than 85 percent of the world's population. Yet, effective vaccine distribution requires the role of high-income countries "to share in the equitable distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine around the world."

This will be a momentum to break the hearts of most of the world community in their hopes about vaccines. "The uncertainty of global access to the COVID-19 vaccine stems not only from ongoing clinical trials, but also from the failure of governments and vaccine manufacturers to be more transparent and accountable for this arrangement."

As of November 15, high-income countries have ordered nearly 7.5 billion doses of vaccine from 13 producers, a newspaper said. These include Japan, Australia and Canada, which collectively have more than 1 billion doses, but account for less than 1 percent of current COVID-19 cases.

Even if the vaccine major producers reach their projected maximum production capacity, nearly 25 percent of the world's population may not receive a vaccine for another year or more.

The People's Vaccine Alliance coalition last week said pharmaceutical companies must openly share their technology and intellectual property through the World Health Organization (WHO) so that more doses can be produced.

John Hopkins researchers say the WHO's COVAX Facility can play a key role in ensuring fairer access to approved vaccines but only secures 500 million doses, well below its target of delivering at least 2 billion doses by the end of 2021.

Launched in April, the global pact aims to raise funds from wealthy nations and non-profit organizations to accelerate the development and manufacture of the COVID-19 vaccine and distribute it evenly around the world.

So far the pact has secured half of the funding it needs, which the US and Russia - key players in vaccine development and manufacture - have yet to join.