LSI Denny JA Predictions There Will Be 3 Axis In The 2024 Presidential Election: Airlangga Hartarto To Puan Maharani

JAKARTA - The Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) Denny JA predicts that the 2024 Presidential Election (Pilpres) will be fierce. There are three axes that are expected to compete in the political contestation.

This prediction is based on a survey conducted on 24 May-7 June 2022. Not only with qualitative research, namely media analysis, there were 1,200 respondents in 34 provinces who were interviewed face to face with a margin of error of 2.9 percent.

"The first axis will be filled by the PDI-P. The party bearing the bull symbol may nominate DPR Speaker Puan Maharani as a presidential candidate," said LSI researcher Denny JA, Ardian Sopa in a written statement, Tuesday, June 14.

The second axis predicted to enliven the 2024 presidential election is the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB). The axis, which is filled with the Golkar Party, PAN, and PPP, is believed to be a forum for Airlangga Hartarto.

While the third is the axis of the rest of the world or the rest of the party outside the two axes above that have already filled the ticket. "In this axis, Prabowo Subianto is the general chairman of the largest party outside PDIP and Golkar with the highest electability," he said.

As for the characters, Ardian said there are five characters that are predicted to dominate. They are Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, DKI Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan, DPR RI Chair Puan Maharani, Golkar Party Chairperson who serves as Coordinating Minister for the Economy Airlangga Hartarto, and Gerindra Party Chairperson who is also Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto.

"The 2024 presidential election will be dominated by these five figures. They are a combination of party ticket holders and high electability," he continued.

According to him, the PDIP and KIB axis can already carry presidential and vice presidential candidates without having to add coalition parties. PDIP has already pocketed 22.26 percent of the national vote in the 2019 Pileg, while the requirement to nominate a president is 20 percent of the national vote. Meanwhile, KIB already has 25.73 percent of the national vote. The number was obtained from Golkar with 14.78 percent, PAN 7.65 percent, and PPP 3.3 percent. The third axis is the axis of the rest of the world. The main figure in this axis is Prabowo Subianto. Based on the votes in the 2019 Pileg, the Gerindra Party has the most votes with 13.57 percent. Then, NasDem with 10.26 percent, PKB 10.09 percent, Democrats 9.39 percent, and PKS 8.70 percent. predicts, the PDIP axis or the KIB axis can still add other parties to the coalition. Thus closing the opportunity for the birth of a fourth pair.