Searching for Tumbal After Public Trust Decreases

Photo by Luthfiah VOI

JAKARTA - Ahead of the two years of his administration, President Prabowo Subianto received a less pleasant gift. The public's satisfaction with Prabowo's government performance has decreased drastically, at least 30.1 percent.

The decline in public satisfaction with the government was revealed by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting. Based on the results of the latest survey on July 5-19, 2026 entitled "Economic Political Conditions and Presidential Approval Rating", the public satisfaction rate with the Prabowo government now touches the figure of 51.1 percent. The percentage has decreased by 30.1 percent in the last nine months. In November 2025, Prabowo's satisfaction figure touched the figure of 81.2 percent.

"Approval ratings do not come from nowhere. The decline in satisfaction with President Prabowo's performance occurred simultaneously with the deterioration of public assessments of economic, political, and law enforcement conditions," said SMRC Executive Director Deni Irvani, Sunday, July 26.

Meanwhile, the public who feel dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with President Prabowo's performance increased from 16 percent in the November 2025 survey to 46.9 percent in the July 2026 survey. The survey also found that about 4.8 percent of citizens felt very satisfied with the president's performance, while 46.3 percent of citizens felt quite satisfied, 35 percent were dissatisfied, 11.9 percent were dissatisfied at all, and 2.1 percent did not know or did not answer.

The decline in public satisfaction prompted political communication expert, Emrus Sihombing, to urge President Prabowo to immediately carry out a massive evaluation of his aides in the cabinet. According to him, the decline in public satisfaction should be a momentum to carry out fundamental improvements in the performance of ministers and heads of institutions.

He emphasized that the evaluation was not enough to only look at the level of satisfaction with the president, but also had to target more than 100 presidential aides who were responsible for implementing government policies. "Evaluate the 100 aides. Make a very basic reshuffle so that the level of public satisfaction does not decrease further," he said, Tuesday, July 28.

He hopes that the next surveys conducted will not only measure the level of satisfaction with the president, but also take detailed pictures of the performance of each ministry and agency. "The survey needs to be broken down to the level of ministries and heads of agencies, so that the president can know who is really working and who is a burden on the government," added Emrus.

He assessed that the mapping results could serve as an objective basis for the president to retain ministers who perform well while replacing officials who are judged to have failed to carry out their duties. In addition, the number of presidential aides who are judged to be disproportionate to the current national economic conditions.

Decrease in Public Satisfaction Is a Warning Alarm

Furthermore, Emrus said, the decline of around 30 points in nine months is a signal that the government should not ignore. He saw, the decline is very logical when associated with the worsening perception of the public towards a number of strategic sectors, especially the economy, law enforcement, politics, and government communication.

He assessed that the various programs initiated by President Prabowo basically had good intentions. Unfortunately, the implementation in the field is still not going in line with the direction of the president's policy. He exemplified the Free Nutritious Meal (MBG) program which had faced various problems, ranging from alleged corruption to distribution which was considered not to be targeted.

Therefore, Emrus emphasized the importance of evaluating all presidential aides so that the purpose of the policy does not stop at the level of concept, but is really felt by the community. The reason is, not all ministers perform poorly. He gave an example, the Minister of Agriculture as one of the presidential aides who was considered to have shown a positive performance, especially in maintaining national food availability.

Emrus emphasized that officials who are unable to translate presidential directives should have the courage to resign rather than maintaining a position that lowers public confidence in the government. Because, the decline in public satisfaction has the potential to develop into distrust of the government if it is not immediately addressed. "This condition can trigger people's apathy and hinder the success of various development programs," he added.

Political Communication Expert, Jamiluddin Ritonga, also said that the decline in public satisfaction was triggered by the low performance of the ministerial ranks in the economic, political, and law enforcement sectors, which had an impact on the public's difficulties in daily life.

According to him, the evaluation of presidential aides in the three sectors is currently a must that cannot be delayed. Regarding the economic sector, the surge in basic needs and the slow movement of income are the main highlights that greatly burden the community. This economic difficulty is further exacerbated by a sluggish industrial climate and limited availability of new jobs for the community.

In terms of national politics, there is disappointment over the deteriorating quality of democracy and protection of civil society rights in Indonesia. "In the political field, especially democracy in Indonesia, shows a setback, which is marked by the still strengthening influence of the oligarchy, the weak function of parliamentary oversight, and the decline of civil liberties. This makes public dissatisfaction with the Prabowo government even higher," said Jamil.

Meanwhile, law enforcement officers are considered far from expectations because they have not been able to provide equal sense of justice for all levels of society. "In law enforcement, the public also considers it selective. The law is thought to be sharp to the poor and blunt to officials and the rich," he said.

Furthermore, Jamil assessed that at least 11 officials at the level of ministers in the fields of economy, politics, and law enforcement had the potential to be removed due to their low performance assessed by the public. Some ministers in the economic sector who are considered worthy of removal include Coordinating Minister for the Economy Airlangga Hartarto, Coordinating Minister for Food and Agriculture Zulkifli Hasan, Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, and Trade Minister Budi Santoso.

"The Minister of Energy and Human Resources (ESDM) Bahlil Lahadalia is also worth being shuffled. Because his controversial policies in the energy sector often affect the economy," he added.

Not only the economic sector, Jamil also mentioned the ranks of officials in the fields of politics and communication who should be included in the evaluation list. "In the field of politics, it is worth reshuffling the Minister of Home Affairs Muhammad Tito Karnavian, the Minister of Communication and Digital Meutya Hafid, and the Government Communication Agency Muhammad Qodari," he said.

In the field of law enforcement and security, three heads of institutions were also included in the list that were deemed worthy of being replaced by President Prabowo. "Meanwhile, in the field of law enforcement, the heads of the Ministry of Law, Supratman Andi Agtas, the Attorney General, Sanitiar Burhanudin, and the National Police Chief, Listyo Sigit Prabowo," said Jamil.

"So, to boost the performance of the economic, political, and law enforcement sectors, the ministers should be worthy of being reshuffled," he continued.

August is Predicted to be a Momentum for Cabinet Reshuffle

Political and military observers from the National University, Selamat Ginting, predict that there will be a reshuffle of a number of Red and White cabinet ministers in August 2026. The plenary cabinet meeting at the State Palace on Monday, July 20, is rumored to be the last meeting of a number of ministers. Although it does not detail the possibility of ministers who will be removed, the prediction can be read from the order of ministers who delivered speeches, speeches, even seating positions. "This could be the last plenary cabinet meeting of a number of ministers. The President has time to end the "honeymoon" with Jokowi's people," he said.

At the beginning of his term, President Prabowo Subianto appointed 18 ministers from the cabinet of the Seventh President of the Republic of Indonesia Joko Widodo. Of that number, at least 15 ministers are active to date. In addition, he also alluded to the National Police Chief Listyo Sigit and Attorney General ST Burhanuddin who are known to have served for at least five years.

Selamat stated that there was a change in political relations between Prabowo and Gibran. Likewise, there was a change in Prabowo's power relations with a number of ministers from the previous government. He suspected that the efficiency of the ministries' and local governments' budgets was deliberately done by Prabowo to make the government's executors uncomfortable. "You can't play around with oligarchs because they are monitored," he added.

However, the Minister of State Secretary Prasetyo Hadi emphasized that until now President Prabowo Subianto has not planned to carry out a reshuffle (reshuffle) of the Red and White Cabinet, even though the evaluation of the performance of the ministers is still ongoing. Prasetyo said that the evaluation and supervision process for the cabinet ranks is carried out routinely to ensure that the implementation of government programs runs according to target. "As we have often said that the evaluation or supervision process does not always lead to a reshuffle," he said.

According to him, the President has his own parameters in evaluating the performance of ministries and officials through coordination, monitoring, and periodic feedback. In addition to performance achievements, the public communication aspect of ministers is also part of the evaluation. If there is an inappropriate delivery to the public, it will be a note to be improved.

Prasetyo emphasized that the monitoring, supervision, and evaluation process was carried out so that each ministry could carry out programs correctly, quickly, have good governance, and be able to solve various community problems.