Nine Times Eating Leads to Anarchy

Photo by Luthfiah VOI

JAKARTA - The history of modern political civilization is often written not at the negotiating table, but in the lines of the flowing food queue and markets with prices that are no longer affordable. Investigative journalist Alfred Henry Lewis of the New York Journal in 1906 wrote that a regime was only "nine meals" away from anarchy. When economic crises hit, the social contract between rulers and people usually will be torn first, opening the door wide for systemic political crises.

This phenomenon has become an alarm for many countries amid global uncertainties such as now. The causal relationship between financial shocks and national stability is now back in the spotlight of sharp observers of politics and economics.

For many regimes, especially authoritarian or hybrid ones, economic growth is the only source of legitimacy. Political observer from the University of Indonesia, Cecep Hidayat, calls this condition as "performative legitimacy".

"People are willing to exchange some of their political rights or civil liberties for economic stability and a full stomach. However, when the economy collapses, the government no longer has a reason to be obeyed. This is where the economic crisis transforms into a legitimacy crisis," said Cecep Hidayat, Jakarta, Monday, April 7.

According to Cecep, the economic crisis serves as a catalyst that reveals the cracks in power that were previously covered by growth figures. Corruption, collusion, and social inequality issues, which were previously suppressed by a sense of financial security, suddenly exploded into collective anger on the streets.

1998 and 2022 Historical Tragedy

Indonesia has a strong collective memory of this. The May 1998 tragedy is a classic example of how the depreciation of the rupiah exchange rate and the surge in the price of basic necessities collapsed the New Order regime that had been in power for 32 years.

The late senior economist Faisal Basri, in his various notes that are still relevant to this day, often emphasizes that the 1997 monetary crisis was not the sole cause, but rather "the entrance". The economic crisis weakened the elite coalition that had supported Suharto. As economic resources shrink, loyal supporters begin to withdraw (exit strategy), leaving the regime alone in the face of the masses.

A similar pattern was seen in Sri Lanka in 2022. The failure of debt management and fuel shortages triggered the Aragalaya movement. Angry people occupied the presidential palace, forcing President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee abroad.

The Indef economist, Tauhid Ahmad, assessed that in developing countries, dependence on food and energy imports makes the government's political position very vulnerable to global fluctuations. "Once subsidies must be withdrawn because the state budget is bleeding, the government is actually gambling on politics that is very risky. Every increase in fuel prices is an instant reduction in popularity points," said Tauhid.

The Domino Effect: From the Middle Class to the Security Apparatus

The economic crisis became very dangerous politically when it started hitting the middle class. Unlike the poor group which focuses on survival, the middle class has access to information, organizational ability, and influence on social media.

"If the middle class starts to feel that their future is threatened, they will become the driving force for change. Those who are usually apolitical will take to the streets because their assets are eroded by inflation," added Cecep Hidayat.

In addition, political stability depends heavily on the loyalty of security personnel. In a devastated economic condition, the state's ability to finance military and police operations will also be disrupted. If the salaries of the officers are no longer enough to support their families due to uncontrolled inflation, loyalty to the ruler often fades. Without the support of the muzzle of the gun, regimes that lose economic legitimacy usually fall within days.

The Threat of Stagflation and Polarization Today

The world today is facing the threat of "Triple F" (Food, Fuel, Financial). IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has repeatedly warned that food insecurity is a real threat to global social stability. In many countries, anti-government protests have increased along with rising living costs.

Former Minister of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, in various international forums emphasized the importance of social support. "Economic shocks are never politically neutral. It always looks for the weakest point of a government system to be destroyed," he said in a discussion on fiscal resilience. At home, the challenge is getting tougher because economic crises are often spiced up by sharp political polarization. Economic crises provide ammunition for the opposition to delegitimize the government through the narrative of state mismanagement (mismanagement).

In the end, the economic crisis is the ultimate test of the resilience of a political system. For the ruling regime, managing inflation and maintaining the purchasing power of the people is not merely a technocratic task in the monetary field, but the most fundamental political survival strategy.

History has proven that no fortress of power is strong enough to withstand the waves of anger of a hungry people. Economic crises will always be a "gateway" for political change, either through peaceful democratic transitions or bloody revolutions.