Reckless Rhetoric Without Support ala Russia and China

Photo by Luthfiah VOI

JAKARTA - Two superpowers, Russia and China, have become the focus of the world when Israel, with the support of the United States (US), began attacking Iran, Saturday, February 28. How not, Russia and China are known to have close diplomatic, trade, and military relations with Iran.

Of course, this war between Israel-US against Iran is like a test, to what extent Russia and China are willing to provide support to the country led by President Masoud Pezeshkian. Indeed, Russia's response to the US-Israeli attack on Iran sounded loud. Unfortunately, Moscow's concrete support remains limited.

BBC News Russian assessed that Moscow's attitude reflects anger at the US and Israeli actions as well as solidarity with Tehran. But Russia is also careful not to be dragged directly into the confrontation. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov expressed deep disappointment that Washington and Tehran had negotiated, but the situation had deteriorated into open aggression. "We continue to maintain contacts with Iranian officials as well as the Gulf countries affected by the escalation," he added.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has condemned the US and Israel for what it called "unprovoked aggression" against Iran. Moscow also accused the practice of political assassinations and "hunting" for the leaders of sovereign countries. At its peak, President Vladimir Putin expressed condolences for the death of the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on Sunday, March 1. Putin even called the event a "violation of human morality and international law."

However, Russia avoided direct criticism of US President Donald Trump, even still expressing gratitude to Washington for mediating with Ukraine. The interest in the conflict with Ukraine is what BBC News Russian called the reason why Russia's support for Iran is only rhetorical. In fact, since Russia invaded Ukraine, Tehran has been one of Moscow's closest allies by supplying drones and helping Russia find ways to avoid a barrage of Western sanctions.

In fact, Russia's attitude shows that they will not risk too much for the sake of their allies. An example is the events that occurred in Venezuela, Syria, as well as during the 12-day war between Israel and Iran in mid-2025. The Russian-Iranian strategic partnership agreement on January 17, 2025 also did not become a joint defense pact. Moscow and Tehran promised to share information, hold joint exercises, and maintain regional security. However, the two are not committed to defending each other if attacked.

"For Moscow, Iran is too important to be allowed to collapse, but not important enough to be fought for. That calculation could change, but for now Russia's intervention seems to remain limited to rhetoric," an analysis from BBC News Russian said.

In other parts of the world, China also strongly condemned the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Historically, Beijing has opposed the US-led regime change strategy in various parts of the world. As reported by the BBC World Service Global China Unit, the core of China-Iran relations is a mutually beneficial economic partnership, given that China is Iran's largest trading partner and its most important energy customer.

Even though Iran has been hit by heavy sanctions from the US for years, Beijing remains Tehran's main economic mainstay. China buys Iranian oil in large quantities at a discount through a network of "ghost fleets" - ships that are falsely registered to avoid sanctions. For example, in 2025, China bought more than 80 percent of the oil shipped by Iran. The revenue from the sale helped Iran stabilize its economy and finance its defense spending, even though Western countries closed their market doors.

In its analysis, the BBC World Service Global China Unit revealed that historically, China's approach to Iran-Israel and US tensions has been a calculated strategy of restraint. In previous disputes, Beijing has consistently called for "restraint" while blaming external interference, which is an indirect allusion to US policy.

In previous Iran-Israel clashes, China has acted as a diplomatic supporter for Tehran by using its veto - or veto threat - to weaken UN resolutions. However, Beijing has never offered direct military intervention. China's strategy has always aimed to keep the US stuck in the Middle East, without triggering a total collapse of the region that could push up world oil prices.

"For Beijing, the emergence of a pro-Western regime in Tehran would be a major geopolitical defeat. Iran is not only an energy supplier, but also a political representation that is a significant counterweight to US influence in the region," the BBC World Service Global China Unit commented.

Teneo's Managing Director, specializing in China, Gabriel Wildau, said that China's official statement "was very condemning, but beyond this rhetoric there was no visible effort by the Chinese government to take concrete action to support Tehran. "Maintaining detente with the US remains a strategic priority for the Chinese leadership," he added.

Wildau added that, according to plans, a high-level meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will take place later this month. Trump and Xi are expected to discuss a number of issues, including Iran, during their last telephone conversation on February 4. "Beijing will probably seek concessions on issues that are more directly related to its interests, such as Taiwan and trade, in return for a much softer message on Iran."

Russia and China Tend to Be Behind the Scenes

Unair International Relations Expert, Radityo Dharmaputra, is also pessimistic that Russia and China will directly intervene in the war between the United States-Israel and Iran. "Of course it is impossible to help Iran. For China, there is no benefit. Beijing just condemns and remains silent. The US has worsened its own image. Meanwhile, Russia is still focused on the war in Ukraine. This is what I think makes Iran begin to doubt Russia's commitment," he added.

Meanwhile, intelligence and geopolitical observer, Amir Hamzah, emphasized that despite having strategic closeness with Iran, Russia and China are likely not to be directly involved against the US-Israel. Because, direct involvement between the Western bloc and the Russian-Chinese bloc is actually a red line that has the potential to trigger a world war. "Russia and China tend to play behind the scenes. Military assistance, logistical supplies, drone technology, air defense systems, it is more realistic than direct involvement," he continued.

According to Amir, one of the most crucial points in this conflict is the Strait of Hormuz, which is a strategic route for the distribution of world oil. If Iran blocks or there is a military disturbance in the region, global oil prices could skyrocket.

The impact is not only on the Middle Eastern countries, but also the global economy, including Indonesia. The surge in energy prices will have an impact on domestic inflation, the burden of energy subsidies, the rupiah exchange rate, and market stability. "A major war in the Middle East almost always has an impact on a global economic crisis. Indonesia must be vigilant," he said.

Lecturer of International Relations at UGM, Muhadi Sugiono, said that the war between Iran and the US-Israel which spread to countries in the Middle East region and the involvement of US allies from Europe was a real threat to a global war. According to him, this war not only threatens regional stability, but also has the potential to change the global power configuration. The emerging political dynamics show how vulnerable the international system is to prolonged conflicts.

"This situation is increasingly worrying about the occurrence of a global war. If the conflict is not immediately resolved, an international political atmosphere similar to the Cold War era, where one attack can trigger a chain reaction, can be created," he said.