The Shadow of World War III

Photo by Luthfiah VOI

JAKARTA - The increasing global tensions in recent years have opened the fragile post-Cold War international order. In fact, some observers, politicians, and international relations activists see the current global geopolitical situation entering the most dangerous phase since 1945.

The 6th President of the Republic of Indonesia, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) even expressed his concern over the global geopolitical dynamics of the past few months. SBY is afraid of World War 3. "These three years, I have been following the world's developments. Especially the global dynamics of the last few months. As someone who has been paying attention and delving into geopolitics, peace and international security, as well as the history of wars from century to century, frankly I am worried. Worried and worried that something bad will happen. Worried if the world experiences a major disaster. Especially if the big disaster is World War III," he said through his X account @SBYudhoyono.

He assessed that it was very possible that the conflicts in the world would lead to World War III. Moreover, the pattern that has occurred recently is the same as what happened in World War I (1914-1918) and World War II (1939-1945). "It is very possible that World War III will occur. Although, I still believe that this very terrible thing can be prevented. But, day by day, the space and time to prevent it is becoming narrower. The situation of the world before the First World War (1914-1918) and World War II (1939-1945) has many similarities with the current situation," said SBY.

"For example, the emergence of strong leaders who are war-hungry, the formation of a coalition of opposing countries, the massive development of military power including the preparation of the economy and its war machine, and a really hot geopolitics. History also notes that even though there are real signs of a major war, it seems that awareness, concern, and concrete steps to prevent the war from happening," he continued.

From abroad, The New Yorker Magazine named US President Donald Trump as the driving force behind the "new imperialist project" marked by aggressive unilateralism. Starting from the annexation in Venezuela to the ambition to dominate Greenland, Trump's policies are considered to create a dangerous precedent that could be imitated by other major powers, especially Russia and China. The impact, the risk of global conflict will increase sharply.

In fact, The Telegraph said World War III is no longer just a possibility, but a process that may have begun in a fragmented manner. The Middle East is considered one of the main flashpoints. The threat of US military intervention against Iran, amid a wave of domestic protests in the country, triggered an escalation of rhetoric and military readiness. Tehran accuses Washington of deliberately escalating regional tensions.

In the latest escalation, the speaker of the Iranian parliament warned that any US attack would be met with an attack on Israeli and American bases and ships in the region. This urged Israel and a number of Arab countries to persuade the US to delay attacking Iran. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian again issued a warning that a US attack on his country would provoke a harsh response. If the attack results in the killing of the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, it will be seen "as the same as a large-scale war against the Iranian nation".

Complications in the European Land

During the Cold War, there was always the potential for conflict in Europe. But today, statements by officials on both sides of the Atlantic, in Russia and across Western Europe, show a rhetorical readiness for armed conflict on a scale not seen before.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbánara claimed that European leaders had formed a "Council of War" to plan a victory in a potential third world war. "I sat there among them, 27 prime ministers and heads of state sitting around the table when we met in Europe, and I tell you firmly that they will fight," he said as reported by the International Business Times.

The Secretary-General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Mark Rutte, even stated that Western countries "must prepare for a major war like our grandparents and great-grandparents experienced". Meanwhile, the Commander of the British Air Force, Sir Richard Knighton said that the current situation is much more dangerous than in previous periods of his career.

Quoted from The Independent, while Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to delay peace talks related to the Ukrainian conflict, he also warned that Russia is ready to fight with Europe if necessary. If this happens, it is most likely that this will happen through NATO allies' provocations in Europe at a number of vulnerable points, especially in the Baltic, North Atlantic, and Balkans.

The Economic Times revealed that Russia has also begun increasing production of hypersonic missiles. The medium-range weapon is capable of attacking targets up to 3,415 miles away, putting locations across Europe and even the western US within its potential range. The successful test of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile in October - dubbed "Flying Chernobyl" for emitting radioactive gas from its unprotected reactor - marked another escalation.

The missile test showed that the missile can fly for 15 hours nonstop and cover a distance of 14,000 km but the actual range could be "unlimited". Putin's claim that Russia now has the highest level of nuclear weapons in the world is a terrible warning of World War III.

However, there is a new dynamic regarding Trump's ambition to annex Greenland. With the excuse of not being able to receive the Nobel Peace Prize last year, he felt he had no reason to prioritize a peaceful path to seize the large Danish island. "Given that your country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped more than eight wars, I no longer feel obliged to think about peace alone," Trump said.

The threat of imposing a penalty tariff of 10 percent, which was later increased to 25 percent, on imports from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Finland unless they withdraw their objections to the plan has plunged trade relations between the EU and the US into a new turmoil, forcing the bloc to consider retaliatory measures, and also risking destroying the NATO transatlantic alliance that has ensured the security of Western countries for decades.

The Taiwan Strait Continues to Be Turbulent

The Taiwan Strait is also referred to by many analysts as the most dangerous battlefield in the 21st century. Beijing considers Taiwan an inseparable part of China, while the US is increasingly open to supporting the island's de facto independence status. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) of China's massive military exercises with sharp bullets, simulated blockades, amphibious landing barge tests, to the development of sea cable cutters show China's readiness for complex military operations.

On December 31, 2025, Beijing released a New Year's speech delivered by President Xi Jinping as the country prepared to enter 2026. In addition to domestic issues, Taiwan once again emerged as a major focal point, reflecting Beijing's growing determination. In his speech, President Xi stressed that the Chinese people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait have the same bloodlines and kinship. National reunification, as a sign of the times, cannot be stopped.

Before closing 2025, China launched a large-scale military exercise dubbed "Mission Justice" which began on December 29, 2025. This exercise marks the largest scale military exercise to date and mainly includes live-fire exercises. China Central Television (CCTV) emphasized that Beijing "will not show mercy in fighting separatism and promoting national reunification, continue anti-separatist and anti-intervention operations, and firmly safeguard national sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity."

In addition to responding to Taiwan's purchase of 40 billion US dollars worth of weapons from the US, the Justice Mission reaffirmed China's strategic goal of Taiwan. Preparations that have been secretly carried out since 2021 in Fujian Province indicate that the Justice Mission may represent China's final exercise before its readiness to engage in combat and annex Taiwan.

A number of observers estimate 2027 as a crucial moment, coinciding with the centenary of the founding of the PLA. Washington is seen as difficult to avoid confrontation if Taiwan is attacked. An invasion of the island would almost certainly trigger a direct US-China war, which would then drag Japan, Australia, India, and the Asia-Pacific NATO countries. In the worst-case scenario, the Taiwan conflict could also be the main trigger for World War III.

In his analysis published by Profile Magazine, the lead researcher at the Russian Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Dmitri Trenin believes that the world is in the shadow of World War III. However, unlike conventional invasions such as the era of World War II, the form of this war is much more hidden and widespread. "The world war has begun. It's just that not everyone realizes it," he said.

Trenin assessed that the global pre-war phase for Russia began in 2014, for China since 2017, and for Iran since 2023. In his view, since then the world has entered a new and increasingly intensive phase of conflict. The form is not just a military power struggle, but a comprehensive conflict that includes economic sabotage, social agitation, and internal destabilization of opposing countries.

Admittedly or not, the world is now at a crossroads of history. Regional conflicts that are interconnected make one calculation error enough to ignite a global war. The question is no longer whether escalation is possible, but whether the world is ready to bear the consequences when world leaders lose their common sense and continue to choose confrontation.