New Or False Hopes?

A photo by Luthfiah VOI

JAKARTA The Purbaya Effect phenomenon has apparently tempted survey institutions to find out the electability level of the Minister of Finance Purbaya Yudhi Sadive for the upcoming General Election or 2029 Elections.

It is the Indonesian IndexPolitica research institute which is known to have released the results of a survey regarding presidential candidates, vice presidential candidates, and political parties for the 2029 election. Unmitigated, Purbaya's name is in second place in the electability category of presidential candidates, right after President Prabowo Subianto!

In this survey, Purbaya even defeated political figures such as Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka, Anies Baswedan to Ganjar Pranowo. For the top of the mind of the 2029 presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto is in first place with 40.12 percent, in second place is Purbaya Yudhi Sadive with 22.50 percent," said IndexPolitica Indonesia Executive Director Denny Charter, Wednesday, October 29.

After Prabowo and Purbaya's names, Anies followed in third place with 13.40 percent, Ganjar was ranked fourth with 7.12 percent. Meanwhile, Gibran's electability was 4.80 percent or still under the Coordinating Minister for Infrastructure and Regional Development Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY) at 5.12 percent.

The 2029 presidential candidate electability survey also raised names such as West Java Governor Dedi Mulyadi (2.50 percent), Minister of Youth and Sports Erick Thohir (1.12 percent), Mahfud Md (0.10 percent), and Coordinating Minister for Law, Human Rights, Immigration, and Correctional Yusril Ihza Mahendra (0.10 percent).

In addition to the position of presidential candidate, Purbaya's name also appeared in the electability survey of vice president candidates. The former head of LPS even occupies the highest position with 28.65 percent, ahead of Dedi Mulyadi (20.15 percent), Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (15.75 percent) and Gibran (12.35 percent).

Denny said, the results of this survey seemed to recognize the existence of the Purbaya Effect. In a short time, Purbaya managed to gain high popularity with his policies and actions when he started serving as Minister of Finance.

The IndexPolitica survey entitled Measuring Public Perceptions related to Political Issues Towards the 2029 General Election was conducted from 1 to 10 October 2025 using the multistage random sampling method. The survey was conducted with a questionnaire consisting of approximately 72 questions with a sample of 1,610 respondents. IndexPolitica stated that the margin of error of this survey was 1.6 percent, with a confidence level of 95 percent.

Public Residence Behind Purbaya's Popularity

Political socio observer of the Helios Strategic Institute, Musfi Romdoni, believes that methodically, Purbaya Effect has similarities with Jokowi Effect and Dedi Mulyadi Effect. He explained that currently Indonesian politics is entering a phase known as a celebrity political phenomenon, where politics works like the entertainment industry. In this context, figures who are viral and popular tend to automatically increase their attractiveness and level of public preference for themselves.

"This is what is then in the political terminology or maybe in contemporary languages called the earlier effects, if the context is Pak Purbaya, of course Purbaya Effect," he said.

Nevertheless, Musfi saw a significant difference between Purbaya Effect and Jokowi Effect and KDM Effect. Jokowi Effect was formed in a long and organic time span, while Purbaya Effect appeared quickly and instantly. Within two to three days, public perceptions that were originally negative for Purbaya could turn around to be drastically positive.

A different assessment was made by former member of the Prabowo-Gibran National Campaign Team (TKN) Expert Council, Ferry Latuhihin. According to him, Purbaya's popularity is a reflection of society that has no hope. Purbaya's figure with a cowboy style makes people feel like finding a savior.

"This is Satrio Piningit, right. Why can he suddenly be popular, a figure from zero suddenly becomes a hero? Because earlier when people were upset, when people didn't have hope, they looked for a figure who could give hope, right? So behind Purbaya's popularity, it was actually the community's helplessness," he explained.

He compared Purbaya Effect with Jokowi Effect in 2014, where Jokowi was labeled as New Hope or New Hope. At that time, in the midst of the anxiety of people who do not have savings, it is difficult to find work, high unemployment rates, informal sectors all rely on MSMEs, one figure was considered by Satrio Piningit.

"It was the same when Jokowi (yearly) 2014. Many people sneered at this furniture maker, how could he be president? But, in the midst of the condition of society at that time, Jokowi's figure was actually considered a savior even though he was a furniture man, right," said Ferry.

Erasmus University Rotterdam's alumnus emphasized that political struggles do exist in popularity over rationality. Not only in Indonesia, the same thing also happens in super developed countries such as the United States. Political struggles are indeed in popularity rather than rationality. Even in super developed countries such as USA. Especially in Konoha where people are easily lured with promises as sweet as bottle tea," said Ferry.

He added that his concern for the figure of Purbaya is his knowledge of the economy which is considered minimal to become a policy maker and decision. What is very worrying is that Purbaya's knowledge of the economy is too minimal to be a decision and policymaker. In fact, there are many things that are very basic he doesn't understand," continued Ferry.

The Success Of The Program Will Bring Purbaya To The 2029 Presidential Election

Political observer Adi Prayitno admits that Purbaya's popularity is currently in the public spotlight. But that can change at any time, considering that in politics, there is no guarantee that someone will continue to be liked or be at the peak of electability surveys.

He said that popularity is very volatile, depending on the political steps and styles carried out by the figure. Adi assessed that the character is outspoken and the 'coboi' style is one of the factors that makes him attract public attention. However, if that style begins to disappear, then public sympathy can drop drastically. If Purbaya suddenly doesn't use her cowboy style anymore, it's no longer outspoken, it's no longer gaspol, then the public response will be negative. Get ready this minister will be bullied and criticized," he added.

In addition, popularity will also not last long if it is not followed by real policies that have a direct impact on society. If Purbaya's political style is only limited to political games or rhetoric without producing essential policies in the economic field, then be ready, people like Purbaya, who are now the most popular, can lose public support," said Adi.

Direktur Eksekutif Trias Politica Strategis, Agung Baskoro juga mengakui bila lonjakan elektabilitas Purbaya merupakan fenomena menarik dalam peta politik nasional. Tapi, politisi tersebut masih belum dapat disebutkan final karena masih bergantung kinerja Purbaya untuk menjawab ekspektasi publik terhadap pemulihan ekonomi. Kalau dalam agenda politik, hukum elektoral itu ada tiga. Pertama popularitas, kedua akseptability, dan yang ketiga elektabilitas, ungkapnya.

He explained, in terms of popularity, Purbaya was known to the public thanks to his work in the economic sector and his position as minister of finance. However, he said that this popularity was still relatively new and had not yet fully rooted among wider voters. Meanwhile, in the aspect of acceptability, namely the extent to which Purbaya was accepted by the elite and the general public, the response was still varied because some elites, for example, political parties, began to like the figure of Purbaya, but on the other hand, some of the public were still thinking about it.

"This acceptability will be tested by Purbaya's performance in implementing Indonesia's economic policies, how he returns the economy to a high growth path, suppresses unemployment, overcomes urban poverty, and maintains stable prices," he said.

Meanwhile, for the electability aspect, Agung emphasized that popularity without performance would not last long. Many public figures were very popular at first, but eventually lost popularity when they entered the practical political arena. There are also figures who are 100 percent popular, but when they enter the political realm they are immediately unlocked. At the electability stage, they are even more eroded," he said.

The Minister of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia, Purbaya Yudhi Sadive. (Photo: Doc. Antara)

"It's okay"

"It's okay"

"It's okay"

"It's okay"

On the other hand, Minister of Finance Purbaya Yudhi Sadiveh admitted that he was not interested in entering politics even though his electability was high, along with his increasingly popular name. "I'm not interested in politics. I just want to work," he said after attending a limited meeting with President Prabowo Subianto at the Presidential Palace in Jakarta, some time ago.

When asked further about his high electability, Purbaya again answered normatively about himself not interested in joining politics. "I am not interested in politics, Mas," he said.

As an official who holds a very strategic position and has high popularity and electability, especially for the position of vice president in the 2029 presidential election, the choice to enter politics practically is indeed in the hands of Purbaya Yudhi Sadives himself. But it would be better if he focused on working as a technocrat with a political position as Minister of Finance.

In time, especially if all the policies spoken and stored in public memory are successfully implemented, then the offer and proposal to fill the position of vice presidential candidate in the 2029 presidential election will come by itself. Because, it is normal and normal in the world of politics, especially in Indonesia.