Analyst: Interest Rate Pressure Will Determine the Direction of the Crypto Market in 2026

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JAKARTA - Entering 2026, the crypto market is expected to still be in a transitional phase between global macroeconomic pressures and increasingly stronger medium-term growth potential.

Fyqieh Fachrur, Tokocrypto's analysis, stated that throughout the end of 2025 to early 2026, Bitcoin is in a very important structural support area.

Thus, added Fyqieh, the dynamics of global interest rates, institutional flows, and long-term investor behavior will be the key factors that determine the direction of the crypto market throughout 2026.

"Bitcoin was able to hold above the $80,000 area (Rp1.33 trillion) at the monthly close, which has historically been a price stabilization zone. However, pressure is still visible in terms of liquidity and global sentiment," he explained.

On-chain data shows conflicting signals. The Coinbase Premium Index, an indicator of institutional demand from the United States, has been recorded in a negative zone for quite some time.

This condition indicates that selling pressure from US investors is still ongoing and is the main factor in holding Bitcoin price movements below the level of US$90,000 (Rp1.5 billion).

Fyqieh assessed that as long as Coinbase's premium has not returned to a consistently positive level, the market still has the potential to experience fluctuations and limited corrections.

On the other hand, selling pressure is beginning to show signs of weakening. Outflows from Bitcoin Spot ETFs are still occurring, but their volume continues to decline compared to previous months.

"This indicates that the distribution pressure is no longer as strong as before. In some historical cycles, conditions like this are often a transition phase towards a healthier consolidation," said Fyqieh.