JAKARTA - The September Effect phenomenon, which is an old myth decades ago, is often the weakest period for the US stock index and digital assets such as crypto.
Tensions in September 2025 are increasingly felt as on September 17, where the Fed will determine the direction of interest rates. For the crypto market, a combination of September Effect and the Fed's decision is a big test.
Reku analyst Fahmi Almuttaqin sees that current price performance, which is still relatively stagnant with some minor corrections in recent weeks, has left the current global crypto market capitalization at around US$3.96 trillion.
However, the Fear & Greed index is at level 49, showing the market is still neutral, not optimistic, but also not panicked. This is different from the situation at 11 August where the index was at 70,' explained Fahmi in his statement.
In addition, what further distinguishes this year from previous historical periods is the large flow of funds from institutional investors through spot ETFs.
According to him, steady inflows throughout the year have provided a stronger foundation for the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum, resulting in a relatively minor drop in prices and making Bitcoin able to maintain price levels above US$100,000 (Rp1.64 billion).
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For investors, this September is not just a matter of avoiding the bad month. Instead, what is more important is the discipline of strategies to deal with a combination of seasonal and macroeconomic factors.
One strategy that investors can optimize besides routine investments or Dollar Cost Average (DCA). In addition, investors also need to pay attention to the projection of inflation development and the Fed's view that going forward can be a way of managing risks while maintaining exposure to opportunities for price increases," he said.
On the other hand, Fahmi added, assets with strong catalysts such as Bitcoin and Ethereum could still be an option for momentum traders.
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