Bitcoin Weakens After Halfing, Turns Out This Is The Cause

Illustration of Bitcoin (photo: Unsplash)

JAKARTA - Bitcoin is currently in a crucial point. Unlike the post-halving historical pattern that usually triggers strong rallies, the movement of BTC this time is more influenced by macroeconomic factors and institutional engagement.

According to Tokocrypto trader Fyqieh Almuttaqin, previous comparisons of Bitcoin cycles (2012-2016 and 2016-2020) showed a more aggressive price spike compared to the current cycle.

However, since October 2024, the price of BTC has increased significantly, followed by consolidation in January 2025 and corrections at the end of February.

Unlike previous cycles that were driven more by retail speculation, Bitcoin is now more seen as a mature investment asset. The influence of institutional investors, banks and governments has changed market dynamics, making BTC price movements more stable than extreme spikes in the past," he said.

Over time, the Bitcoin rally seems to be weakening. The 2012-2016 and 2016-2020 cycles show an exponential increase, while the 2020-2024 cycle and currently is more moderate.

If this trend continues, Fyqieh says Bitcoin may experience a longer and more stable cycle, not an explosive parabolic rally as before.

In addition to macroeconomic conditions, political factors also play a role in the movement of Bitcoin prices. President Donald Trump's pro-crypto stance and increasing adoption of BTC at the state level add unexpected variables in this cycle.

Fyqieh explained that although the market did not react too enthusiastic about the White House Crypto Summit, developments like this marked a major step in the government's adoption of Bitcoin.

However, the next target for BTC is at 86,750 US dollars (Rp1.41 trillion), with a stop rate below 84,000 US dollars (Rp1.37 billion). However, to actually reverse the bearish trend, he stressed that BTC should be able to penetrate 91,000 US dollars (Rp1.48 billion) in the next few days.