Expert Predicts The Third Wave Of COVID-19 Occurs In 2022

ILLUSTRATION/UNSPLASH

JAKARTA - A virologist who is also a professor at Udayana University, Prof. I Gusti Ngurah Kade Mahardika, predicts that the third wave of COVID-19 cases will occur in 2022.

"I can even predict if I look at last year's pattern, then I predict another eruption in January - February 2022," Mahardika said in a virtual talk on Virus Mutation Alerts with Health Protocols, quoted by Antara, Thursday, September 30.

Mahardika said that learning from the surge in COVID-19 cases that spiked in previous periods, it appears that a pattern is starting to form where cases began to surge in December 2020, January-February 2021 and July 2021 case outbreaks occurred.

Therefore, it is predicted that cases will increase again in January-February 2022 because population mobility also increases towards the end of the year.

For this reason, in addition to always implementing strict health protocols, the acceleration of COVID-19 vaccination must be increased, and that is what the government is currently doing.

Prof Mahardika said if the regions reached the vaccination target of 70 percent or could be above 70 percent, the amount of pressure on the hospital system would not be as great as it was before.

He hopes that the government will immediately accelerate the achievement of the vaccination target, which is currently 1.5 million people being vaccinated per day to two million or four million people per day, and strive for a 100 percent vaccination target for the entire population.

"For people who have not been vaccinated, immediately if there is a call for vaccination, please vaccinate. This vaccine is scientific evidence of the progress of modern medicine," said Prof Mahardika.

According to him, reflecting what happened abroad in general when the country's vaccination achievement was above 60 percent, the number of people who died and was hospitalized was not high.

Prof Mahardika said one of the impacts of the acceleration and increase in COVID-19 vaccination coverage above 70 percent was the number of people admitted to the hospital and the number of people dying was very low, but cases could spike sharply.

"Vaccines are available quickly, so maybe in early 2022 we will say the virus is still around us but we can minimize the impact of the pandemic. This is the role of the vaccine," said Prof Mahardika.

Meanwhile, the Chair of the Indonesian Lung Doctors Association's Infection Working Group, Dr. dr. Erlina Burhan, M.Sc, Sp.P(K) said there is a potential for a third wave of COVID-19 to occur, so prevention and anticipation steps need to be taken.

"I think that the potential (third wave) is there. However, we as people who have had a long journey, our country, our government, our nation are experiencing a second wave and it is really terrible, uncomfortable. I think we have to change, we have to try that we anticipate that potential so that a third wave does not occur," said Erlina.

Prevention steps that must be continuously pursued include the application of health protocols with discipline, undergoing COVID-19 vaccination and increasing self-immunity with a clean and healthy lifestyle and balanced nutrition.

"If we can still work hand in hand between the government and the community, both of whom want to be free from this pandemic, we should be able to anticipate it," he said.

Erlina said the COVID-19 vaccination coverage must be further increased because currently it is still 24 percent even though it is already approaching the end of 2021. Meanwhile, the Indonesian government has a vaccination target of 70 percent of the total population.

"At the beginning, it was said that at the end of the year Indonesia was able to reach 70 percent (for vaccination achievements). Now this is still a bit far, only 24 percent, so efforts are indeed needed to intensify and increase this vaccination," he said.