JAKARTA - The escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran is considered to have begun to raise concerns about the impact on domestic security in various countries, including Indonesia. The threat is not only seen in the context of global geopolitical conflicts, but also has the potential to trigger radicalization to individual terrorist acts in the country.
The latest tensions peaked after US President Donald Trump delivered a tough ultimatum to Iran regarding Tehran's nuclear program. Trump stressed that Washington would not hesitate to launch a new military attack if Iran refused to return to the negotiating table.
Responding to this, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) through its official channel Sepah News stated that it was ready to expand the conflict beyond the Middle East region if a military aggression against Iran actually occurred.
The IRGC even warned that the war could spread to areas that "never imagined" by the United States and Israel.
The status of the IRGC as a global terrorist organization is also a matter of concern. The United States has included the IRGC on the Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list since 2019. Meanwhile, the European Union in January 2026 also designated the IRGC as a terrorist organization related to cyber activities and asymmetric networks that are considered to threaten global security.
Criminologist who focuses on terrorism issues, Tegar Bimantoro, assessed that the most real threat to Indonesia is not in the form of direct military attacks, but the emergence of ideological and radicalization criminality in the country.
"Although Indonesia is far from the Middle East, the IRGC's statement still has a domino effect on local radical groups," Tegar said in his statement, Thursday, May 21.
According to him, global geopolitical situations such as the US-Iran conflict are often used by extremist groups to build new ideological narratives and strengthen anti-Western propaganda in the digital space.
Tegar mapped at least two main threat scenarios that could potentially arise in Indonesia as a result of the escalation.
First, the potential for the activation of sleeper cells and lone wolf action. According to him, the open declaration of war from a group as large as the IRGC can be a trigger for local extremist individuals or groups to carry out independent terrorist acts as a form of ideological solidarity and exploit the momentum.
"Momentum of global chaos like this can be used by sleeper cells or individuals who have been exposed to radicalism to carry out lone wolf actions," he explained.
Second, the increasing propaganda of anti-Western narratives and the process of rapid radicalization in social media. Tegar assessed that military conflicts involving Western countries and Muslim countries are almost always used as propaganda material by radical networks.
"The narrative 'the West is attacking Islam' is the main fuel for online propaganda that accelerates the process of radicalization and strengthens the sentiment of hatred against Western assets," he said.
He explained, in the current context, the space for the spread of radicalism has shifted to the cyber space. Individuals who are constantly exposed to propaganda of global conflicts can learn the motives, ideological justifications, and techniques of radical action through digital platforms.
In addition, Tegar also highlighted the emergence of emotional or social strain due to the visualization of global conflicts that continue to circulate on social media. This condition is considered to affect individuals who already have ideological vulnerabilities.
"When they are frustrated by the global situation but are unable to change it politically, some can vent it through domestic terror as a form of substitute revenge," he said.
However, Tegar assessed that Indonesian security forces such as the TNI and Polri are certain to increase vigilance in anticipating potential threats.
However, he reminded that in the modern digital era, geographical boundaries are no longer an obstacle to the spread of radicalism.
"Vigilance in the digital space and early detection are much more crucial to prevent the domino effect of global conflicts from turning into a real threat within the country," he concluded.
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