The Pair Rudy Mas'ud-Seno Aji Wins In The East Kalimantan Gubernatorial Election Survey

Illustration of the 2024 Simultaneous Pilkada (ANTARA)

JAKARTA - The Indonesian Election Study Institute (LKPI) released the results of a survey regarding public preferences in the 2024 East Kalimantan (Kaltim) Governor Election (Pilgub). As a result, the candidate pair (paslon) for governor and deputy governor, Rudy Mas'ud-Seno Aji, won with an electability rate of 57.8 percent.

"On the other hand, the incumbent candidate pairs, Isran Noor and Hadi Mulyadi, only got 35.3 percent of the votes. Meanwhile, 6.9 percent of respondents still have not made a choice," said LKPI Executive Director, Togu Lubis in his statement, Friday, September 6.

Togu said the figures reflect the dynamics of electability that benefits candidate pair Rudy-Seno, with a sizeable difference in electability from the Isran-Hadi pair. This survey, said Togu, also shares results based on age groups, providing more insight into each generation's preferences.

He explained, in the Generation Z voter group (age 17-26 years) which amounted to 24.1 percent of the total respondents, the Rudy-Seno pair managed to get 56.1 percent of the votes. Meanwhile, the Isran-Hadi pair only got 36.6 percent, with 7.3 percent of respondents who did not vote.

"Generation Z, who is a young voter, is considered one of the key segments in elections because of their openness to new changes and ideas," said Togu.

Furthermore, in the larger Millennial Generation (27-42 years old) voter group, which was 36.8 percent of the total respondents, the Rudy-Seno pair was still ahead with 57.1 percent of the votes. Meanwhile, the Isran-Hadi pair won 37.6 percent and only 5.3 percent of respondents from this group did not vote.

Togu assessed that the high support from the Millennial Generation could be interpreted as that the Rudy-Seno pair succeeded in attracting the attention of generations who were critical of technological developments, innovations, and regional economic development that were inclusive.

Togu said Generation X (43-58 years old) which amounted to 27.7 percent of respondents also showed a similar trend. The Rudy-Seno pair won 55.3 percent of the votes among this generation, while Isran-Hadi only got 35.9 percent, with 8.8 percent of respondents did not vote.

"This support from Generation X shows the importance of policies that are oriented towards stability and sustainability, considering that this age group tends to prioritize economic certainty and long-term welfare," said Togu.

In addition, the Baby Boomer and Pre Boomer (59 years and over) groups, which amounted to 11.4 percent of the total respondents, also supported Rudy-Seno's pair more with 50.9 percent of the votes. Meanwhile, the Isran-Hadi pair received 43.3 percent, and 5.8 percent of respondents did not vote.

"Support from an older generation is important, because they usually focus more on political stability and policies that prioritize social welfare," he added.

On the other hand, the LKPI survey also revealed that 22.3 percent of respondents said they were still likely to change their choice before election day. Meanwhile, 66.3 percent said they were solid with their choice and 11.4 percent did not know.

"This data shows that even though there is a clear electability trend, some voters are still considering changing options, which can be a challenge for the two pairs of candidates," he said.

Interestingly, added Togu, this survey also revealed that the support from national figures, such as the Minister of Defense and President-elect Prabowo Subianto, and PDIP General Chair Megawati Soekarnoputri were important factors in voter preferences. A total of 69.4 percent of respondents said they would elect candidates supported by Prabowo, while only 20.3 percent did not consider this factor and 10.3 percent said they did not know.

"Meanwhile, Megawati's support was also considered significant, of which 54.2 percent of respondents chose Megawati's candidate, while 33.2 percent did not consider her support, and 12.6 percent did not. This shows that the political endorsement of national figures still has a strong influence on voters in East Kalimantan," concluded Togu.

This survey was conducted on August 26 - September 4, 2024, involving 1,450 respondents who are at least 17 years old or already have the right to vote and are conducted face-to-face.

Sampel menggunakan teknik multistage random sampling, dan hasil survei memiliki margin of error sekitar 2,57 persen pada tingkat kepercayaan 95 persen.