PPKM Micro, How Does It Affect The Economy In The First Quarter Of 2021?

Illustration. (Angga Nugraha / VOI)

JAKARTA - The imposition of restrictions on micro-community activities (PPKM) will take effect from today until February 22, 2021. Micro-PPKM will certainly affect business and will also have an impact on the economy in the first quarter of 2021.

This micro-PPKM involves the smallest units at the neighborhood level (RT)/community unit (RW) or village in monitoring the spread of COVID-19. In micro-PPKM, there are five new rules that need to be known.

First, the government continues to enforce domestic travel restrictions by requiring negative evidence on the results of the COVID-19 diagnostic test, both PCR, antigen swab, and GeNose.

Second, the Electric Rail Train (KRL) operational schedule during the micro-PPKM has not changed from the previous PPKM. KRL operational schedule continues to operate from 04.00 to 22.00 Western Indonesia Time. The same thing also happened to the TransJakarta operation which enforced the Busway operation during the micro-PPKM from 05.00 to 21.00 Western Indonesia Time.

Third, PPKM changes the WFO and WFH rules to 50 percent. Schools in the micro-PPKM areas also continue to be online. Then, the mall operating hours rule is also set at a maximum of 21.00 Western Indonesia Time/Central Indonesia Time without tolerance.

Meanwhile, dine-in at restaurants is still limited to a maximum of 50 percent. Restaurants are also required to close at 21.00 Western Indonesia Time. This includes restrictions on places of worship, which is only 50 percent allowed by requiring wearing masks.

Fourth, civil servants (PNS), TNI soldiers, members of the National Police, and BUMN employees are prohibited from traveling outside the city during the long holiday period, especially during the long holiday of the Chinese New Year on 12 February.

Finally, the government has tightened community activities in settlements that are adjusted to zoning. For example in the orange zone, where there are 6 to 10 houses in one neighborhood unit (RT) that have positive confirmation cases. In that zone, there is a closure of community activities outside the home, including in places of worship, children's playground, and public places, except in the essential sector.

While in the red zone where more than 10 houses in one RT have positive cases, there are tighter restrictions. First, no more than 3 people outside the house are allowed. Places of worship, children's play areas, and public places are closed except for essential sectors. Activities in and out of the area are limited to 20.00 Western Indonesia Time.

Micro PPKM affects the economy in the first quarter of 2021

Chief economist at Bank Central Asia (BCA) David Sumual said the imposition of restrictions on micro-community activities (PPKM) will definitely affect economic growth in the first quarter of 2021. He assessed that economic growth in that quarter was still not in the positive zone.

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Apart from the PPKM, according to David, economic growth in the first quarter will be seasonally lower. Especially this year, the possibility of growth in the first quarter of 2021 will be low because, in the first quarter of 2020, the economy still managed to grow positively amidst the COVID-19 storm.

Illustration. (Irfan Meidianto / VOI)

Even so, David sees that the impact of this micro-PPKM will not be as big as the effect of large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) in the last year. Apart from being looser than the PSBB, this is also a factor in the community and the business world that have adapted to activity restrictions.

Meanwhile, Executive Director of the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) Tauhid Ahmad estimates that national economic growth in the first quarter of 2021 will still be minus 1 percent. This is due to several things, including the spread of COVID-19, the development of people's purchasing power, and inflation below 1.5 percent in January 2021.

"We estimate that the first quarter of 2021 will reach minus 1 percent," he said at an Indef press conference entitled 'COVID-19 increases, the economy slows down', Sunday, February 7.

Although economic growth has shown improvement in the fourth quarter of 2020, according to him, this figure is still moving slowly. Thus, national economic growth has not had any significant changes that occurred at the beginning of this year.

PPKM is a breath of fresh air for fashion retailers

The fashion retail issuer managing MOC and Manzone outlets, PT. Mega Perintis Tbk (ZONE), assesses that the implementation of micro-community activity restrictions (PPKM) will have a positive impact on the Company.

ZONE President Director, Franxiscus Afat said that this policy will also be a breath of fresh air for the retail industry as a whole. Including, fashion retail.

This is because, said Afat, the implementation of micro PPKM accompanied by maximum easing of employees working in the office is 50 percent from the previous 25 percent, and the mall can operate until 21.00 Western Indonesia Time will have a positive impact.

However, he said, even though he was still hampered by business restrictions due to the pandemic, his party continued to actively issue new fashion collections and continued to boost online or online sales.

"For outlet expansion, we are still waiting and seeing until the second semester," he said, in Jakarta, Monday, February 8.

- https://voi.id/berita/31729/keb Policy-ppkm-mikro-yang-justru-dikritisi-oleh-epidemiolog

- https://voi.id/berita/31757/ppkm-mikro-berlaku-hari-ini-bimana-indikasi-penentunya

- https://voi.id/berita/31665/operasional-mal-dan-perja-kantor-dilonggarkan-dalam-ppkm-mikro

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