Results Of 4 Simulations Of The 2024 Presidential Election Survey Version Of The Political Indicator Survey: The Strongest Ganjar-Erick Pair

SOE Minister Erick Thohir and Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo at the Puri Gedeh Semarang official residence, Saturday, May 16, 2020. (Between-Humas Central Java Provincial Government)

JAKARTA - The Indonesian Political Indicators Survey (IPI) released 4 simulation models for 3 pairs of candidates (paslon). Of all these simulations, the pair Ganjar Pranowo and Erick Thohir were the strongest as candidate pairs in the 2024 presidential election.

Executive Director of Political Indicators Burhanuddin Muhtadi, explained that in the first simulation, the Ganjar-Erick duo got 38.6 percent. Meanwhile, Anies-AHY 30.4 percent and Prabowo Puan 19.8 percent. Respondents who answered did not know as much as 11.2 percent. In this simulation, said Burhanuddin, the electability of presidential candidates had an effect on the electability level when paired with their vice presidential candidates.

"Again, when Ganjar's electability increased in December, the Ganjar-Erick pair's electability also increased. Anies' electability fell in December, Anies-AHY's partner also decreased," said Burhanuddin in a virtual survey presentation, Wednesday, January 4.

Meanwhile, in the second simulation, Ganjar-Erick's duet was still ahead with 38.0 percent. Meanwhile, Anies-AHY 30.8 percent and Prabowo-Bahlil 20.0 percent. Respondents did not know or did not answer as much as 11.1 percent.

In the third simulation, the Ganjar-Erick pair strengthened by 39.7 percent. Followed by the Anies-Khofifah pair 27.4 percent and Prabowo-Bahlil 20.4 percent. Respondents do not know or do not answer 12.6 percent.

Meanwhile, in the fourth simulation, the position of Ganjar-Erick pair did not change with the achievement of 37.4 percent. Then, Anies-AHY 29.6 percent and Prabowo-Khofifah 22.2 percent. Respondents do not know or do not answer by 10.8 percent. Burhanuddin explained that Ganjar's electability is always superior if paired with whoever the vice presidential candidate is. "Likewise, for example, if Ganjar is paired with another, or Anies with another, Prabowo is the same as the other, the pattern is the same," said Burhanuddin.

This Indicator Survey was conducted on December 1-6, 2022 through face-to-face interviews with 1,220 respondents. The sampling used the multistage random sampling method with a margin of error +/- 2.9 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.