Simulation Of President-Cawapres, Ganjar Pranowo Always Wins Paired With Anyone Except For Puan Maharani

Ganjar Pranowo and Puan Maharani (Photo via Central Java Provincial Government)

JAKARTA - Poltracking Indonesia released the results of a survey related to the simulation of presidential-vice presidential candidate pairs against the names included in the 2024 presidential election. As a result, Ganjar Pranowo always wins with whoever the vice presidential candidate pair is, except with Puan Maharani. The Executive Director of Poltracking Indonesia, Only Yuda, said that the definitive name of the presidential and vice presidential candidates has not been final even though the implementation of the 2024 presidential election will begin in one year. However, based on political tendencies developing, both from qualitative analysis, some elite information, and information circulating in public spaces, there are several possible potential presidential-vice presidential pairs in the 2024 presidential election. Especially for the current 3 strongest presidential candidates, namely Ganjar Pranowo, Anies Baswedan, and Prabowo Subianto. "Ganjar Pranowo is often associated with Airlangga Hartarto, Erick Thohir, Puan Maharani, Ridwan Kamil, and Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno," said Hanta Yuda, in a survey presentation on Thursday, December 22. Meanwhile, Anies Baswedan, after being declared by NasDem, is often associated with several names to accompany him as vice presidential candidate. Such as Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY), Ahmad Heryawan, and Khofifah Indar Parawansa. "Meanwhile, Prabowo Subianto is often associated with the names Erick Thohir, Muhaimin Iskandar (Cak Imin), and Khofifah Indar Parawansa," he continued. Hanta explained, in the simulation of the first three pairs of candidates, Ganjar-Erick Thohir received 33.1 percent electability, 1 more superior compared to the pair AniesAHY with 27.5 percent, and Prabowo-Cak Imin with 25.5 percent. "In the simulation of the second candidate pair, Ganjar-Ridwan Kamil got 30.5 percent, ahead of the Prabowo-Erick Thohir pair at 28.2 percent, and Anies-AHY 27.7 percent," explained Hanta. Then in the third simulation, Ganjar-Sandiaga Uno pair was narrowly superior with 29.8 percent, compared to the Anies-Khofifah pair at 28.5 percent, and Prabowo-Cak Imin with 26.3 percent. "In the fourth pair simulation, Ganjar Pranowo-Airlangga Hartarto is 27.7 percent, slightly superior to Prabowo Subianto-Khofifah Indar Parawansa 26.6 percent, and Anies Baswedan-Ahmad Heryawan 25.1 percent," he said. From the simulation, Ganjar Pranowo always wins if paired with anyone as his vice presidential candidate. However, Ganjar will lose when juxtaposed with his fellow colleagues at PDIP, Puan Maharani.

"In the fifth pair simulation, Prabowo-Erick Thohir got 27.1 percent, narrowly superior to the Ganjar-Puan pair with 26.4 percent, and also the Anies-Khofifah pair 26.2 percent," said Hanta. The Indonesian Poltracking survey was held on November 21-27, 2022 using a multistage random sampling method. The survey went through face-to-face interviews with questionnaires who had been randomly selected. The sample number in this survey was 1,220 respondents in 34 provinces with a margin of error +/- 2.9 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.