SSI Survey: Ganjar Winning In The First Round, Prabowo Winning In The Second Round

Lustration of the 2024 General Election. (Between-M Iqbal)

JAKARTA - The Indonesian Survey Scale (SSI) released the results of a national survey regarding the potential for presidential candidates (candidates) to win the 2024 presidential election if it is held until the second round. In the simulation of four potential presidential candidates, SSI predicts Prabowo Subianto and Ganjar Pranowo will enter in the second round. The 4 names involved will advance, namely Gerindra Chair Prabowo Subianto, Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, former DKI Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan and DPR Speaker Puan Maharani. As a result, Prabowo will win the battle after being defeated by Ganjar in the first round. "Pilpres 2 rounds if there are 4 names for the presidential candidate. Prabowo Subianto and Ganjar Pranowo enter the second round. And Prabowo won in the second round," said SSI Executive Director Abdul Hakim, in a survey release, Friday, November 18. Initially, Ganjar Pranowo would win a fight with an electability rate of 28.6 percent. Meanwhile, Prabowo Subianto 26.3 percent, Anies Baswedan 23, 3 percent, and Puan Maharani 0.7 percent. Meanwhile, those who answered did not know / did not answer / did not answer / had not decided as much as 21.1 percent. If there are 4 names advanced, there is not a single presidential candidate who has an electoral rate of up to 50 percent + 1 to be able to win the contestation in one round. Even if a vote that does not know / does not answer / is confidential / has not decided to add proportionally to the four names that advance, neither has anyone reached 50 percent +1. "That means, the presidential election will not be completed in one round. The potential for the presidential election must be continued to the second round, and those who have the potential to advance to the second round are Ganjar Pranowo and Prabowo Subianto," said Abdul. Meanwhile, in the second round, if Prabowo Subianto vs Ganjar Pranowo advances, then the Minister of Defense has greater potential to beat Ganjar with an election rate of 35.3 percent. Meanwhile, Ganjar Pranowo got 33.8 percent. "Indeed, 33.8 percent have yet to decide. However, if this figure is distributed proportionally to both of them, the one who can collect more than 50 percent of the votes is Prabowo Subianto," explained Abdul. So, how did Prabowo Subianto win in the second round against Ganjar Pranowo, even though Ganjar's first command was superior? Abdul Hakim explained, when the names Anies Baswedan and Puan Maharani were eliminated in the first round, it turned out that Anies' vote in the second round was mostly his tendency to migrate to vote for Prabowo Subianto. "Anies' voice will move to choose Prabowo as much as 31.5 percent. Meanwhile, 17.9 percent chose Ganjar. Meanwhile, the voices of Puan Maharani in the second round will be distributed evenly to Ganjar Pranowo and Prabowo Subianto with 25 percent each. "This is the answer, why Prabowo Subianto was able to win the contest if in the second round against Ganjar Pranowo," he concluded. The SSI survey was conducted on November 6-12 2022 through face-to-face interviews with respondents using questionnaires in 34 provinces in Indonesia. The number of respondents was 1,200 people aged 16 years and over or married. The survey method uses multistage random sampling with a margin of error +/- 2.83 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent.