SMRC Survey: The Electability Of Ganjar Candidates For 2024 Increases, Prabowo Slightly Weakens

Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo (left) and Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto (right). (Central Java Provincial Government Public Relations Doc-Kemhan.go)

JAKARTA - The survey institute Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) released the latest poll on the electability of figures to become presidential candidates in the 2024 General Election which will be held in 1.5 years.

SMRC Research Director, Deni Irvani, stated that the electability of Ganjar Pranowo, the Governor of Central Java, has continued to increase in recent times.

In open-ended or top-of-mind questions, where respondents spontaneously name the presidential candidate they support, Ganjar ranks first with 17.6 percent support, followed by Prabowo Subianto 12.6 percent, Joko Widodo 12.5 percent, Anies Baswedan 9 .1 percent, Ridwan Kamil 4.3 percent.

Meanwhile, and other names below 2 percent. There are still 32.4 percent of residents who have not mentioned the name of the candidate in this open question.

Deni revealed that Ganjar's electability has increased from March to August 2022. Meanwhile, the name Prabowo Subianto, the General Chair of the Gerindra Party, has slightly weakened. Then, Anies Baswedan, the Governor of DKI Jakarta, increased but not significantly.

"From March 2021 to August 2022 spontaneous support for Ganjar rose from 6.1 percent to 17.6 percent, while support for Prabowo did not change much from 13.4 percent to 12.6 percent, Anies tended to increase from 5.4 percent to 9.1 percent," said Deni in SMRC TV's YouTube show, quoted on Monday, August 22.

In the semi-open simulation, Ganjar also experienced a very significant increase in votes, from 8.8 percent in the March 2021 survey to 25.5 percent in August 2022. Meanwhile, Prabowo tends to weaken from 20 percent to 16.7 percent in the same period. Anies slightly strengthened from 11.2 percent to 14.4 percent.

In the closed-choice simulation of 3 names, Ganjar received the most support 32 percent, followed by Prabowo 30.8 percent, and Anies 21.9 percent. There are 15.3 percent who have not answered.

"From this data, Ganjar Pranowo is the most potential figure in the upcoming presidential election. Support for him continues to rise, and in the last survey (August 2022) he excelled over other names," he explained.

Furthermore, Deni views the significant increase in support for Ganjar due to at least three factors. First, he has consistently been a preferred character over his competitive opponents.

"There are 83 percent of those who know that they like Ganjar Pranowo. This figure has been stable in the last year and a half. Meanwhile, Prabowo's preference is relatively lower and tends to weaken," he added.

For information, this survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews on August 5-13, 2022. The total sample collected by trained data collectors reached 1,220 respondents.

The sample was randomly selected from the population of Indonesian citizens aged 17 years and over or already married when the survey was conducted. The survey's margin of error is estimated at 3.1 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.