Minister Of Health: Hajj Exposure To COVID-19 Affects Prediction Of Peak Cases At The End Of July

Minister of Health Budi Gunadi Sadikin/DOK via ANTARA

JAKARTA - Health Minister Budi Gunadi Sadikin said the prediction of the peak of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia at the end of July 2022 could change due to the influence of imported cases brought by pilgrims to the country.

"We'll see with the return of the hajj pilgrims, we'll look at their profiles, maybe it's changed a bit, because indeed the hajj pilgrims are arriving and there are some who have (confirmed positive) COVID-19," said the Minister of Health on the sidelines of the launch of the BioColoMelt-Dx molecular diagnostic kit at the hospital. Darmais Jakarta was reported by ANTARA, Tuesday, July 19.

However, Budi has not specifically stated the number of Indonesian pilgrims who have been confirmed positive for COVID-19.

Budi said the Ministry of Health together with a number of epidemiology experts estimate that the peak of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia will occur at the end of July 2022, reaching 20,000 more active cases.

Initially, this prediction was measured based on observations that occurred in South Africa as the country of origin for the spread of BA.4 and BA.5 variants in a number of countries, including in Indonesia, which now has more than 81 percent of cases.

The increase in cases in South Africa in the past month, said Budi, was only a third of the increase in cases at the peak of Omicron BA.1. Hospitalizations or hospitalized patients are only a third of the Omicron peak.

If Indonesia imitates the pattern that occurred in South Africa, said Budi, it is estimated that the peak of cases in the country will reach 30 percent of the peak of the Omicron, or the equivalent of 20,000 patients and after that it will fall again.

"If we look at it until now, BA.4 and BA.5 are still higher," he said.

When compared to other countries, said the Minister of Health, India's increase was almost the same as Indonesia's. The increase in BA.4 and BA.5 cases was higher in the UK, Portugal, America and Japan.

"France and America have over 100,000 cases, including Singapore, Japan," he said.