LSI Survey Reveals 4 Reasons For The Third Axis Of The 2024 Presidential Election Never Formed, Gerindra-PKB Predicted To Split

Photo: Director of CPA LSI Denny JA Ade Mulyana. Photo: Nailin In Saroh/VOI

JAKARTA - National survey institute LSI Denny JA highlighted the formation of a coalition axis for the 2024 presidential election.

It is known that the only coalition that has actually been declared is the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB). Meanwhile, PDIP, although it has not announced a coalition yet, the party chaired by Megawati Soekarnoputri has automatically built a new axis because it can carry its own presidential candidate.

Meanwhile, the PKB and Gerindra coalition has only been claimed through its administrators not yet at the general chairman level. Then, NasDem, PKS and Democrats until now have just held a meeting.

Director of CPA-LSI Denny JA Ade Mulyana revealed four reasons why the third axis had not been formed. According to him, the five parties namely Gerindra, PKB, NasDem, PKS and Democrats still look complicated.

"Indeed, being the third axis still looks complicated, because there are some things that could hinder these parties from forming a coalition outside the two coalitions," said Ade at the LSI Denny JA Office, Rawamangun, East Jakarta, Wednesday. , July 6th.

According to LSI Denny JA, the four reasons for the third axis have not been consolidated, namely first, the difficulty of determining who the leader is between Gerindra General Chair Prabowo Subianto, NasDem Chairperson Surya Paloh, and Democrat General Chair Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY), behind whom is Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono ( SBY).

"This is without diminishing the role of figures from PKB and PKS. But about these three figures, it is also difficult for us to determine who will succumb to being led by one of these figures," explained Ade.

"Prabowo has often been a presidential candidate, we also see SP has NasDem and national figures, and Pak SBY who has been president of Indonesia for two terms. So it's a bit difficult among these 3 figures to be led by one of them. It may be difficult to form a coalition between the three this character," he continued.

Second, it is not yet clear who will be the presidential candidate, and who will be the vice presidential candidate for the rest of the world. Ade said, Gerindra is certain that the fixed price for the presidential candidate is Prabowo. Then for NasDem, from the results of the National Working Meeting there are 3 possible presidential candidates, namely Anies Baswedan, Ganjar Pranowo, and Andika Perkasa.

"So each has its own presidential candidate. Then the Democrats will definitely carry Mas AHY, at least the vice presidential candidate. PKB will also definitely carry Cak Imin at least as vice president. This is one of the reasons the remaining parties outside the PDIP and KIB axis are difficult to form a new axis to stretch the presidential and vice presidential candidates," explained Ade.

Third, based on history and other factors. Ade assessed that Gerindra and PKB were still likely to join PDIP. Meanwhile, Democrats and PKS also have the possibility of joining KIB.

"If the Democrats join PDIP it seems a bit difficult, because we look at the history of Mrs. Mega and Mr. SBY, as well as PKS which may still be far from ideologically opposed. This third reason is the possibility that parties outside the PDIP and KIB axis could join Axis 1 and 2," he said.

Fourth, only Gerindra has the upper hand. If you look at the percentage of the remaining parties, said Ade, Gerindra is indeed the highest. With this result, Gerindra only needed one party to get one ticket for the presidential-vice presidential race. Unless NasDem and PKB unite, according to Ade, it takes 2-3 other parties for a coalition.

"Later yesterday we knew that Gerindra-PKB had started to meet a lot, we don't know if it will become the third axis or what. We will see, if they unite, their vote is 23.66 percent, enough to support the presidential and vice presidential candidates. But we assess This coalition is still shaky, because Gerindra may still be able to join the Democrats or join the PDI-P coalition," said Ade.

"Then, it is possible for PKB to enter the PDIP coalition. So we can see that the Gerindra-PKB coalition is only warm at the beginning, we don't know what the next certainty will be, the possibility of this coalition breaking is very high," concluded Ade Mulyana.