JAKARTA - Demonstrations and crowds that arise in them can extend the COVID-19 pandemic by up to two months longer in Indonesia, said microbial biotechnology expert Intan Taufik. For example, the demonstration against the Job Creation Act has occurred recently.
Intan Taufik in a written statement said that the demonstration was always followed by a surge in positive cases and death rates due to COVID-19 in the areas that experienced it.
"The crowds mentioned yesterday, from the data obtained, resulted in a surge in positive patients (which were validated by tests) beyond normal estimates (average). This has a domino effect and raises the curve. "Automatically when the curve rises, the sloping or decreasing cases / pandemic will be longer," said the teaching staff at the ITB School of Life Sciences and Technology, reported by Antara, Monday, November 2.
According to the calculations of an application built by a team of experts from the Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB) PREMISE, the two demonstrations have a strong relationship to the addition of positive cases of COVID-19, even increasing the death rate from the respiratory tract disease.
The two demonstrations, according to PREMISE's calculations, have actually increased positive cases by 6 percent or an additional 233 cases per day. In fact, the average addition of daily cases on that date was 3,878 cases.
Not only positive cases, cases of death due to COVID-19 after the two demonstrations also increased by 0.11 percent or an increase of 3.3 percent from the average death rate in Indonesia which was 3.41 percent.
The regions that contributed greatly to the addition were DKI Jakarta, West Java, Central Java and East Java Provinces. On the two dates of the demonstration, crowds of demonstrators enlivened the four regions.
Based on PREMISE predictions, the number of daily cases of COVID-19 for one week after the October 6 to 14 October demonstrations was 3,843 cases per day.
The actual data shows that the number of new cases in the same period was 4,207 cases per day, which is 364 cases per day higher than the predicted figure.
The demonstration of the Job Creation Bill on 6 October 2020 contributed to an increase in daily cases by 9.5 percent in Indonesia.
Especially for DKI Jakarta, the impact of the increase in COVID-19 cases due to the demonstration of the Ciptaker Bill was seen to be the highest.
It is predicted that the average daily post-demonstration cases in DKI Jakarta from 6 October to 14 October 2020 are 920 cases per day. Meanwhile, the actual number of cases reached 1,178 cases per day, an increase of 28 percent from the number of normal cases.
In addition to the demonstration of the Ciptaker Bill, an increase in cases also occurred due to the one-year demonstration of Jokowi-Ma'ruf Amin's administration on October 20.
One week after the demonstration, the number of cases increased to 4,051 cases per day. This happened in DKI Jakarta, West Java, East Java and North Sumatra.
The one-day demonstration also contributed to the 2.6 percent increase in cases.
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