CSIS: If Fair, The United Indonesia Coalition Will Be Solid, But Otherwise It Will Be Easy To Disband

Head of CSIS Department of Politics and Social Change, Arya Fernandes/ screenshot

JAKARTA - The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) appreciates the formation of the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB) which was agreed by the Golkar Party, PAN and PPP. CSIS assessed that the coalition was strategic because it was formed earlier and had met the minimum requirements for nomination support of 20 percent.

With this coalition, there will be certainty of candidacy to be carried in the 2024 presidential election. The early coalition also provides more space to discuss policies for both men and post-elections.

The Head of the Department of Politics and Social Change at CSIS, Arya Fernandes, assessed that there were three important things that could affect the solidity or durability of the United Indonesia Coalition. First, how fair and open power sharing is to be discussed within the internal parties that will form a coalition.

"If it is more open and fair, it is predicted that the coalition will be more solid. But if not, it is predicted that it will easily disband," said Arya in a discussion entitled "Maneuvering the Party Coalition Ahead of the Presidential Election: Motivation and Resilience" online, Wednesday, June 8.

Second, the question of the power of carrying out potential winners. Because if it doesn't have the potential to win, said Arya, the coalition will be vulnerable to disbanding because there will be external pulls to move to another coalition that is considered capable of carrying out a candidate who has the potential to win.

Third, it is influenced by how well they represent the preferences of voters when they decide to join another coalition.

"This is an important factor. Because if you can't read the direction of party voters, it will certainly affect the support of party voters," he concluded.