Epidemiologist Griffith Australia: Cases Of COVID-19 After Lebaran Only Seen For One Month

UNSPLASH ILLUSTRATION

JAKARTA - Epidemiologist from Australia's Griffith University Dicky Budiman said the case of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) after the Eid 2022 holiday would only be seen in about one month.

"To find out cases of COVID-19, the effect of Lebaran, is about a month on average, but this also depends on how good the detection is because it comes back, whatever it is depends on the detection ability," said Dicky, quoted by Antara, Friday, May 6.

The estimated time, said Dicky, is the most ideal considering that the government also requires travelers to get booster vaccinations before carrying out the Eid al-Fitr 1443 Hijri homecoming activity to prevent a wave of cases, although it is not known for sure how the homecomers comply with this provision.

"The problem is we don't know how many travelers have received the booster, but at least it's still within the effective duration of the two vaccination doses, which means it's still under seven months after the second injection," he said.

However, Dicky confirmed that vaccination was not the only factor for the safety of this 2022 Eid homecoming trip from the threat of COVID-19, but also the influence of ventilation and air circulation, as well as the level of crowds.

Dicky said that although there are only 10-20 percent of people infected with COVID-19, they have the potential to be carriers of this virus and transmit it, especially when going home and back, this is the time when a crowd of people will move together.

"Well, the effectiveness of transmission in a busy flow like this depends on how many people get vaccinated, it doesn't need to be 100 percent, about 70 or 60 percent will be relatively a barrier, especially if it's 100 percent. Therefore, we all hope that the vaccinations carried out recently will not be effective. to have a negative effect on the development of handling COVID-19," he said.

Jasa Marga noted that as many as 1.7 million vehicles left Jabotabek for three directions, namely East (Trans Java and Bandung), West (Merak), and South (Puncak) during the 2022 Eid homecoming flow.

This figure is up 9.5 percent when compared to Eid 2019, before the pandemic. When compared to normal traffic in the November 2021 period, which was the highest traffic during the pandemic, the 1.7 million vehicles that passed during the homecoming period this year increased by 18.6 percent.