BMKG: Potential For Rain To Increase Significantly On 15-21 February 2022

Illustration/Photo: Antara

JAKARTA - The potential for rain will increase significantly over the coming week on 15-21 February 2022, according to the prediction of the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) released and received by ANTARA in Jakarta, Tuesday 15 February. Rainfall will increase significantly in the western part of Indonesia in the period 15-18 February, covering the areas of Riau, Riau Islands, Jambi, South Sumatra, Lampung, Banten, DKI Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, DI Yogyakarta, East Java, North Kalimantan. , East Kalimantan, South Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi, Gorontalo, Southeast Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua. Meanwhile, on 19-21 February the potential for heavy rain will shift to Central and East Indonesia, including Aceh, North Sumatra, Banten, Java West, Central Java, South Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi, Gorontalo, North Maluku, Maluku, West Papua and Papua. This is influenced by the Madden Julian Oscillation or MJO activity which is predicted to be active in the next week," said Guswanto. He explained that global indices such as the Southern Oscillation Index or SOI (+10.5), NINO3.4 (-0.58) and The Indian Ocean Dipole or IOD (-0.70) shows a significant value, this condition indicates a significant potential for rain cloud growth in both Western Indonesia and Eastern Indonesia. "The Madden Julian Oscillation or MJO activity is currently in phase 3 and it is predicted that in the next week it will be in phase 3 (Indian Ocean) to phase 4 (Maritiem Continent). The MJO conditions in this phase will increase the potential for rain in the western part of Indonesia to the central part," said Guswanto.

Meanwhile, the prediction of atmospheric wave conditions for both Equatorial Rossby and Kelvin is quite significant in the next week period in the western part of Indonesia and eastern part of Indonesia. This is in line with the prediction of Outgoing longwave radiation or OLR which shows a wet anomaly in the next week, especially the west coast of Sumatra to the south of Java. On a regional scale, the surge index and the Cross Equatorial Northerly Surge or CENS index tend to be predicted to be significant at the end of the week. This indicates the presence of cold air masses from the Asian continent. The dominant west-northwest gradient wind conditions and the Australian monsoon are predicted to form a convergence area along Sumatra, Java, and southern Kalimantan. Based on predictions of global, regional, and probabilistic conditions The model predicts the potential for moderate to heavy rain in the areas of Aceh, North Sumatra, South Sumatra, Bangka Belitung Islands, Lampung, Banten, DKI Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, DI Yogyakarta, East Java, North Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, Sulawesi. North, Gorontalo, Central Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi, Sulawesi i South, North Maluku, West Papua, and Papua. Guswanto appealed to the public to remain alert and careful of the potential for extreme weather such as tornadoes, heavy rain accompanied by lightning/lightning, hail, and others, and the impacts that can be caused such as floods, landslides, flash floods, puddles, strong winds, fallen trees, and slippery roads in the next week. This potential can occur on 15-16 February 2022 for the provinces of Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Riau, Bengkulu, Jambi, South Sumatra, Bangka Belitung Islands, Banten, DKI Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, Yogyakarta, East Java, Bali, NTB, NTT, West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, North Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, Gorontalo , Central Sulawesi, West Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi, Maluku, West Papua and Papua. Then 17-18 February 2022 for the Provinces of Aceh, North Sumatra, South Sumatra, Lampung, Banten, West Java, Central Java, Yogya karta, East Java, East Kalimantan, North Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, Gorontalo, Central Sulawesi, West Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi, North Maluku, Maluku, West Papua, and Papua Last 19-21 February 2022 for Aceh Province, North Sumatra , Jambi, South Sumatra, Lampung, West Java, Central Java, Yogyakarta, East Java, Central Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, North Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, Gorontalo, Central Sulawesi, West Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi, North Maluku , Maluku, West Papua and Papua.