JAKARTA - University of Indonesia Senior Economist, Faisal Basri, assessed that Indonesia is in danger of experiencing an energy crisis in the next few years. In fact, the potential energy deficit is estimated to reach up to 80 billion United States (US) dollars by 2040.
Faisal said that Indonesia's energy consumption has recently continued to rise but reserves and production of primary energy have continued to decline. So that domestic energy needs can no longer be met with the resources that are owned in the country.
"In 2021, our energy deficit is already in deficit. In 2040 the deficit has the potential to reach 80 billion US dollars. So it's bullshit 2045 gold," he said, during a joint hearing with Commission VI, at the DPR Building, Jakarta, Monday, August 31.
Faisal said he was doubtful about the government's target in 2045, in which Indonesia would become a developed country. This is because there is no sufficient supply of energy needs in line with the required increase in economic growth.
Based on data from the energy research institute, Wood Mackenzie, said Faisal, Indonesia will experience an energy deficit starting in 2021 and the deficit will widen in 2040. One of the reasons is that Indonesia's gas reserves are estimated to continue to decline and will no longer be sufficient for domestic consumption by 2034.
Furthermore, Faisal explained, by 2034, Indonesia's demand for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) must inevitably be met from imports following oil, which has been in deficit since 2003.
"So, I combine oil. Now the production has decreased to only 781 thousand barrels per day, while consumption is 1.732 barrels. So that 1.7 million barrels we have to cover with imports. There is no sign of improvement but it is widening," he said.
Energy production, supported mainly by oil and gas (oil and gas), has consistently fallen. Within 7 to 8 years will run out if there are no new discoveries.
"Our reserves continue to decline from time to time. We are the only oil producing country that has consistently fallen. Gas has also decreased. Last year, gas reserves fell by almost 50 percent," he said.
Meanwhile, coal reserves are expected to continue to run low. Until 2040 it is estimated that there will still be a surplus to meet domestic needs, but it will no longer be able to offset the energy deficit from oil and gas that will continue to widen in 2040.
"Our coal is the second largest exporter in the world. But our resources are very small, only 3.7 percent. We are the second largest exporter after Australia, even though our reserves are small. Even if renewable energy does not mean the volume of oil decreases," he said.
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