Epidemiologist: COVID-19 Hit the US Badly, but That Doesn't Mean Indonesia Could Be Safer

Presiden Joko Widodo (Sumber: Sekretariat Kabinet)

JAKARTA - The frequency of new positive cases of COVID-19 in Indonesia, or the incidence rate of COVID-19 in the past few months, is considered to be lower than the United States (US). However, Epidemiologist from the University of North Carolina, USA, Juhaeri Mukhtar, doubts it. Even though the case in the US is high, Indonesia could not be any safer.

Juhaeri said the American population is 330 million. Around 5.8 million of them are COVID-19 positive. The incidence rate in the US is 178 per 10 thousand. It means that every 10 thousand people, 178 of them are exposed to the SAR-COV-2 or COVID-19 virus.

Meanwhile, based on August 28 data, there were 165,887 positive cases out of a total of 274 million people in the country. It means that Indonesia is interior, compared to America. 

"So if we calculate the incidence rate in Indonesia, it is much lower than in America," he said during a discussion "Jakarta and the World Reddened Again" by the Populi Center, Saturday, August 29.

However, Juhaeri doubts the government data on the COVID-19 cases. It is because, in terms of population, Indonesia and America are not much different. Moreover, Indonesia and America are slow.

In America, the results of the COVID-19 examination could only be known 2 to 4 days after sampling. The same thing also happened in Indonesia.

"The problem in America is that the test results are not immediately available. So after the test, we need to wait 2 - 4 days. Yes, it's useless. Because at that time, the positive patient had already brought the virus. It had already spread," he said.

Juhaeri said there were differences between the handling methods between Indonesia and America, for example, the speed and number of people tested. However, the accuracy of COVID-19 specimens examination and their intensity in Indonesia is different than in America.

The data from the government may not show actual results. Perhaps, the tests from the government are less massive.

"It is a long business. It isn't because we are not exposed. But it's because the tests are less (massive), less accurate, and so on," he said.

If the incidence rate in Indonesia is the same as in America, then new domestic cases could be higher than the current data. Even more than 4 million people might have been infected.

"If we assume, the chances of being exposed in America and Indonesia are the same. If we apply the same rate, in Indonesia, it could be up to 4.9 million," he said.