The Effects Of Vaccines On The New Economic Recovery Will Be Sought In The Middle Of 2021

Illustrated. (Irfan Meidianto / VOI)

JAKARTA - Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) senior economist Iman Sugema said that the discovery of a vaccine for the treatment of COVID-19 can restore Indonesia's economy as early as mid-2021.

He projects this condition with a note that the discovery of a vaccine will occur in early 2021 because the drug is the key to answering all the economic problems severely affected by this pandemic.

"So this depends on how quickly the vaccine is carried out. If it is finished, then Indonesia's economy will skyrocket starting mid-2021," said Iman as quoted by Antara, Wednesday, August 26.

Faith ensures that the vaccine will also provide certainty for business actors and industry to re-encourage production in line with community demand which begins to grow again.

"If the handling of COVID-19 is delayed for a long time, then more companies will become victims and make recovery even more difficult," he said.

He even estimated that if the economy had fully recovered, it could grow higher than the 2019 period which was recorded at 5.02 percent.

"If mid-2021 is over, economic activity will run like nothing before. Even after 2021 it will skyrocket, whatever assumptions will be achieved," said Iman.

Previously, Indef estimated that the achievement of Indonesia's economic performance in 2021 would depend on the improvements made in 2020.

According to Indef's explanation, Indonesia will grow in the range of minus 0.53 percent to 0.14 percent by the end of 2020, provided that the absorption of fiscal stimulus spending can reach a minimum of 60 percent.

With the strengthening of this foundation, Indef believes that the optimistic scenario of economic growth in 2021 could reach 2.54 percent-3.77 percent, or lower than the government's projection of 4.5 percent-5.5 percent.