Political Survey Indicator: Ganjar-Airlangga Duet Defeats Anies-Erick

Ganjar Pranomo met with Airlangga Hartarto in Klaten. (Special Photo)

JAKARTA - The Indonesian Political Indicators survey institute simulated pairs of presidential and vice presidential candidates for the 2024 presidential election. There were two simulations made with 3 pairs each competing. In the first simulation, for example, the pair of DKI Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan-Minister of SOEs Erick Thohir, pitted against the pair of Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo-Golkar Party Chairperson Airlangga Hartarto, and General Chairperson of the Gerindra Party Prabowo Subianto-DPR RI Chairperson Puan Maharani.

As a result, the Prabowo-Puan pair took the lead by getting 29.6 percent of the electorate. While the Ganjar-Airlangga pair was in second place with 28.8 percent gain. Then, the Anies-Erick pair with 28.2 percent. "We don't know anymore who will win because the difference between these 3 pairs is very thin," said Executive Director of Indonesian Political Indicator Burhanuddin Muhtadi in his online presentation, Sunday, December 5. Meanwhile, in the second simulation, Anies Baswedan was paired with Menparekraf Sandiaga Uno. Ganjar Pranowo was paired with SOE Minister Erick Thohir, while Prabowo was still paired with Puan. In contrast to the first simulation, the Prabowo-Puan pair 'sluggish' in this simulation by only pocketing 28.1 percent. The winner was the Ganjar-Erick duo with 31.1 percent, while the Anies-Sandi pair was runner-up with 30.8 percent. "Again, there is no difference, very significant," said Burhanuddin.

This survey was conducted face-to-face which was held from November 2 to 6, 2021, involving 2020 people. The survey used a multistage random sampling method with a margin of error of 2.9 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent.