Compete With The United States, China Is Projected To Have 3,000 Nuclear Warheads By 2030

Illustration of a Chinese missile. (Source: PLA via MissileThreat)

JAKARTA - The United States Department of Defense projects China's nuclear arsenal will increase sharply in the next few years, saying Beijing could have 700 nuclear warheads by 2027 and possibly 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030.

While the numbers would still be much smaller than the current US nuclear stockpile, they represent a significant change in US projections from last year, when the Pentagon warned China's arsenal would reach 400 by the end of the decade.

Washington has repeatedly asked China to join it and Russia in a new arms control treaty (New START)

In its annual report to Congress on the Chinese military, the Pentagon reiterated concerns about increasing pressure on self-governing Taiwan, and China's chemical and biological programs and technological advances.

But the report places particular emphasis on China's growing nuclear arsenal.

"Over the next decade, the PRC aims to modernize, diversify and expand its nuclear power," the report said, referring to the People's Republic of China.

The report also explained that the Bamboo Curtain Country had begun to build at least three areas of intercontinental ballistic missile silos.

"Does China follow through on forecasts from the United States? This will depend largely on United States policies and actions," said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association.

China's DF-17 medium-range missile. (Source: PLA via MissileThreat)

"China's potential to increase its arsenal to this level underscores the urgent need for pragmatic bilateral or multilateral talks to reduce nuclear risk," Kimball added.

China says its arsenal is dwarfed by the United States and Russia, and is ready for dialogue, but only if Washington reduces its nuclear stockpile to Chinese levels.

The United States is known to currently have a stockpile of about 3,750 nuclear warheads, of which 1,389 were deployed as of September 1.

While citing Kyodo News, the report said China aims to modernize, diversify and expand its nuclear arsenal over the next ten years.

"The PRC is investing in, and expanding, the number of land, sea, and air-based nuclear delivery platforms and building the necessary infrastructure to support the major expansion of its nuclear power," the report said.

In February, the United States and Russia agreed to a five-year extension of the last remaining treaty limiting their nuclear arsenal, New START.

The New START limits each party to no more than 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and no more than 800 deployed and non-deployed intercontinental ballistic missile launchers, submarine-launched ballistic missile launchers and heavy bombers equipped for nuclear weapons.

The Pentagon report also warned China "may have formed a nascent 'nuclear triad'" consisting of ICBMs, SLBMs and air-launched ballistic missiles.

In addition, the report also noted, China's People's Liberation Army Rocket Force "began to field its first operational hypersonic weapon system, the DF-17 hypersonic glide vehicle capable of launching medium-range ballistic missiles" last year.