Global Temperature Limit Commitment Less Strong: PM Boris Johnson Says If COP26 Fails, Everything Fails

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. (Wikimedia Commons/UK Prime Minister's Office)

JAKARTA - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has warned that the COP26 climate summit poses a serious risk of failure, as countries have not promised enough to limit global temperature rises to below 1.5 degrees Celsius.

PM Johnson said, after two days of preliminary talks at a meeting of world leaders who are members of the G20, he acknowledged that little progress had been made on reaching an agreement to limit global temperature rise. In fact, he said the chances of success were only six out of 10 on a rating scale.

"Right now, don't hesitate, we're not going to hit it and we have to be honest with ourselves," Johnson said, citing The Guardian Nov. 2, calling the commitments made so far "a drop of water in a rapidly warming ocean".

PM Johnson said, from a meeting of G20 countries last weekend, only 12 countries pledged to achieve net zero emissions by or around 2050.

Meanwhile, some key countries, such as China and Saudi Arabia, have only officially pledged to meet that goal by 2060.

The UK is known to expect clearer pledges from countries to meet net zero emissions pledges by 2030, with experts warning that emissions need to be halved by this date, when they are currently on track to increase by 15 per cent. Australia, for example, set a new 2050 net zero target this week, but made no major commitments for the decade.

As host of COP26, the UK has had a key role to play in pushing for and negotiating pledges from nearly 200 countries, with many developing countries arguing that developed countries have a responsibility to do more as they have profited from historical emissions causes.

After the leaders meet over the next two days, negotiators will work on the text in hopes of reaching an agreement by November 12.

On the prospect of a deal holding up to 1.5 degrees Celsius, PM Johnson said, "It's tough and it's endless. We can do it, or we can fail in mid-November."

Speaking at a news conference, PM Johnson said pledges from countries to reduce their emissions must be stronger. Experts believe that for 1.5 degrees Celsius to have any chance of success, countries also need to make substantial and meaningful reduction pledges by 2030.

He will also seek pledges to phase out coal, switch to electric vehicles, end deforestation and finance, pledges of money to help developing countries deal with the climate emergency.

"Countries that have been most responsible for [al] emissions historically and currently haven't done their fair share of the work," said Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

"If we want to prevent COP26 from failing then that has to change and I have to be clear, that if Glasgow fails, then all else fails. The Paris Agreement will collapse at first count."

To note, in the 2015 Paris Agreement, world leaders committed to keeping global temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius or as close to 1.5 degrees Celsius as possible.

Meanwhile, the global average temperature has increased by 1.1 degrees Celsius since the Industrial Revolution and only strict emission reductions will prevent that rise from reaching 1.5 degrees Celsius,