JAKARTA - This year's holiday season in the United States is not just about shopping and celebration. The latest data shows that behind the large number of community activities, the flu virus is also spreading rapidly. The emergence of a new variant of the influenza virus called subclade K makes the flu season come early, as previously occurred in Asia, Australia, and Europe.
Based on a report from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in the week ending December 6, right after the Thanksgiving holiday, visits to doctors due to flu symptoms such as fever, cough, and sore throat rose to 3.2 percent. This figure has crossed the national threshold indicating that the flu has entered the outbreak phase.
"This is an official sign that the flu season has started," said Dr. Caitlin Rivers, an infectious disease expert from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, quoted from the CNN website.
Usually the flu season is calculated starting around the beginning of October. However, the dates on the calendar do not always reflect the actual conditions on the ground. According to Rivers, what is more important is the level of flu activity in the community.
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"If the number of doctor visits exceeds 3.1 percent, it means that the flu season is really running," he explained.
Currently, at least 14 health regions in the US are reporting moderate to high flu activity, mainly in the Northeast. New York City recorded very high activity, followed by New York and New Jersey. Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island are at a moderate level. There has also been a spike in Louisiana, Colorado, Georgia, Texas, Puerto Rico, and Idaho.
More worrying, this week also reported the first death of a child from the flu this season.
"Based on our monitoring, flu activity in the US is increasing. This means that now is the right time to get a flu vaccine," said Dr. Tim Uyeki, chief medical officer for the CDC's influenza division.
Several indicators suggest this year's flu season could be worse than usual. In New York state, flu cases began rising two weeks earlier than in previous years. The number of flu patients hospitalized even doubled every week during the last two weeks.
"The flu has arrived, and its arrival is very real," said Dr. James McDonald, New York State Health Commissioner.
If it is depicted in a graph, the spike in cases forms a J-shaped curve, which indicates a rapid increase in severe cases. This means that more people fall seriously ill in a short time compared to last year.
The majority of flu viruses analyzed in US laboratories this season are subclades K, derived from influenza A type H3N2 viruses. This type is known to often cause more severe symptoms, especially in the elderly, so more patients need medical treatment.
Similar phenomena have also occurred in Japan, China, the United Kingdom, and Canada. In Australia, where the first subclade K was detected, the number of flu cases reached nearly 500 thousand cases, breaking the previous year's record.
Experts often look to Australia as a mirror of the future flu season in the northern hemisphere. But flu is notoriously unpredictable.
"Last year's flu season in the US was already very bad. Whether this year will be as bad, it's still hard to say," said Dr. Jennifer Nuzzo of Brown University.
Usually two consecutive severe flu seasons are rare. Even so, the presence of a new variant can change the old pattern.
Dr. Angela Rasmussen, a virus expert from the University of Saskatchewan, estimates that this flu season will still be heavy. In Canada itself, schools have started to close due to many students and families who have contracted the flu.
The K subclade variant is not included in this year's flu vaccine, because it was identified after scientists determined the four main vaccine strains. Even so, the existing vaccine still provides protection.
Data from the UK shows that the flu vaccine is still able to reduce the risk of hospitalization by up to 75 percent in children, although its effectiveness is lower in adults and the elderly. In the US, protection is estimated at around 30-40 percent against severe flu cases.
"Any protection is still much better than none at all," said Dr. Alex Greninger of the University of Washington. Vaccines take about seven days to work optimally, so the sooner you get vaccinated, the better.
Unfortunately, the coverage of flu vaccines in children is still low. CDC data shows that only 38 percent of children have received flu vaccines this year. In fact, last season the US recorded a record number of child deaths from flu, with almost 9 out of 10 children who died were not vaccinated.
Flu vaccines do not completely prevent infection, but are very effective in reducing the risk of severe illness and hospitalization. Because the protection is not perfect, additional preventive measures are still needed.
Dr. Rivers recommends wearing masks in crowded places such as airports, improving room ventilation, opening windows, or using air purifiers, especially when gathering indoors.
Flu usually comes on suddenly with symptoms such as high fever, cough, sore throat, muscle pain, and chills. If you experience these symptoms, you should immediately test and consult a doctor. Antiviral drugs can help prevent symptoms if taken within the first 48 hours of illness.
Flu season has started. Awareness, vaccination, and healthy habits are the key to keeping holidays safe and not ending up in the hospital.
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