Syria Needs 216 Billion US Dollars, IMF Says Economy Is Starting to Recover

Illustration. (Photo: Dok. Antara)

JAKARTA - The Syrian economy is starting to move after more than a decade of conflict. The International Monetary Fund or IMF sees a faster recovery, but the country's reconstruction needs are still very large, reaching 216 billion US dollars.

Arab News, quoted Wednesday, August 5, reported that the assessment was made after an IMF team led by Ron van Rooden, head of the IMF mission for Syria, visited Damascus on July 19-23.

The visit was carried out to review the progress of reforms and discuss the next technical assistance priorities.

The World Bank estimates that Syria's reconstruction needs amount to 216 billion US dollars. Of that amount, 108 billion US dollars is direct physical damage to infrastructure, residential buildings, and non-residential buildings.

The World Bank also noted that Syria's real gross domestic product or GDP shrank by almost 53 percent between 2010 and 2022.

Real GDP is the value of the production of goods and services calculated by taking into account changes in prices. This figure is often used to read the actual economic conditions.

"The recovery of the Syrian economy is getting faster," Rooden said.

According to Rooden, the Syrian economy began to recover in 2025. The impetus came from improving consumer and investor confidence after the regime change, the return of about 1.5 million refugees, and Syria's gradual reintegration with the regional and global economies.

This factor helps to hold back the impact of a major drought that is detrimental to the agricultural sector.

The IMF estimates that the Syrian economy will record double-digit growth in 2026 despite the ongoing regional conflict.

The growth was supported by the recovery of agriculture after rainfall improved, increased oil and gas production, higher electricity supply, and growth in trade and services.

Economic activity is also supported by the return of refugees, an increase in the number of visitors, and government policies to restore economic stability broadly. The Syrian government is also encouraging a private sector-led recovery.

However, the IMF noted. Recovery has not been even in all regions. Poverty, although beginning to improve, is still widespread.

The risk of inflation is also not gone. Rooden said that price pressures increased this year due to the increase in the cost of importing fuel and food related to regional conflicts.

Other factors come from stronger domestic demand, higher utility rates, and higher housing costs.

Inflation had slowed to a low double-digit range in 2025. Rooden said inflation is expected to slow in 2027 if import price pressures ease and the government's revenue and spending policies, along with monetary policy, are carried out in a healthy manner.

From a fiscal perspective, Syria's position has begun to improve. Fiscal is related to state revenues and expenditures.

The central government recorded a small budget surplus in 2025 after adjusting spending to available resources and prioritizing essential needs.

Government revenue is expected to increase significantly this year. The trigger includes stronger tax and customs collection, higher oil and gas revenues, and one-time income from telecommunications licenses and fuel transit fees.

Rooden asked Syria to maintain a careful fiscal policy, improve public financial management, strengthen tax and customs administration, and limit tax exemptions.

This step is needed so that the government has room for development and social protection projects.

"The authorities are also right to focus on increasing revenue mobilization through tax reforms and strengthening tax and customs administration, while tax exemptions should be limited," Rooden said.

The banking sector is another weak point. The IMF assessed the ability of the Central Bank of Syria to carry out monetary policy is still limited because the financial system has not functioned well.

"The Central Bank of Syria has managed to introduce a new currency. However, monetary policy is still very limited by a very dysfunctional banking system and a lack of monetary policy instruments," Rooden said.

He asked for the bank's recovery to be accelerated. A new law on the central bank and banking is also requested to be adopted immediately. Supervision needs to be strengthened, and the financial health of banks must be assessed according to international standards.

Rooden also emphasized the importance of strengthening anti-money laundering rules and eradicating terrorism financing. This step is needed so that Syria can re-enter the international financial system and attract investment.

Syria still needs strong and timely international financial support for humanitarian needs and development.

According to the IMF, refugees returning and internally displaced people are not enough to be helped only humanely. They also need jobs, public services, housing, and infrastructure.

Syria's ability to get development financing will depend on progress in dealing with old debts, building a domestic securities market, and improving the quality of economic data.

Arab News said the IMF had agreed on a technical assistance program for Syria. The program includes fiscal management, revenue mobilization, public debt management, banking reforms, monetary policy frameworks, and economic statistics.

The IMF's double-digit growth outlook is in line with estimates by Syrian Finance Minister Mohamed Yisr Barnieh. According to Bloomberg, Barnieh in February said Syria's economic growth could approach 10 percent this year, supported by greater stability, the lifting of US sanctions, and the return of skilled Syrians who had left the country during the conflict.