BI Forecasts June 2026 Retail Sales Slowing Down

Bank Indonesia building. (Karisa Aurelia Tukan/VOI)

JAKARTA - Bank Indonesia (BI) estimates that retail sales performance in June 2026 will slow down compared to the previous month. This is reflected in the Real Sales Index (IPR) which is projected to be at the level of 221.6, lower than May 2026 which reached 223.4.

However, Head of the Communication Department of Bank Indonesia Ramdan Denny Prakoso, said that the condition of retail sales in general is still maintained and the growth on an annual basis is mainly driven by an increase in sales in the group of spare parts and accessories as well as other household equipment.

The group of spare parts and accessories recorded an index of 145.5 or grew 11.0 percent year on year (yoy). Meanwhile, the other household equipment group recorded an index of 83.8 with a growth of 1.8 percent (yoy).

On the other hand, a number of business groups are expected to still experience contraction, namely the cultural and recreational goods group recorded an index of 56.4 with a decrease of 8.5 percent (yoy), while the motor vehicle fuel group was at an index of 103.5 or contracted 7.8 percent (yoy), after in the previous period still recorded a slight growth.

On a monthly basis, retail sales in June 2026 are projected to decline 0.8 percent compared to the previous month (month to month/mtm). Although still in the negative zone, the decline is smaller than the 1.5 percent contraction in May 2026

According to him, the improvement in monthly performance was driven by the increasing sales performance in several groups of goods, namely the sales of other household equipment grew 1.9 percent on a monthly basis, while the clothing subgroup increased 4.7 percent compared to the previous month.

"This development is influenced by the start of the school holiday period at the end of June 2026," he said, quoting his written statement, Thursday, July 9.

Meanwhile, the cultural and recreational goods group still experienced a contraction of 2.0 percent (mtm), spare parts and accessories sales fell 3.1 percent (mtm), while the food, beverage, and tobacco group contracted 0.7 percent (mtm). However, the three groups showed improvement compared to the previous month.

Regionally, sales performance in June 2026 is expected to still grow in a number of cities, both annually and monthly.

On an annual basis, the highest growth was recorded in Manado with an index of 177.1 or an increase of 15.1 percent (yoy), followed by Semarang and Purwokerto which reached an index of 74.1 with a growth of 10.7 percent (yoy), and Jakarta with an index of 52.7 or an increase of 8.9 percent (yoy).

In terms of monthly, Surabaya became the city with the highest sales growth of 6.6 percent (mtm), followed by Semarang and Purwokerto which grew 1.3 percent (mtm), Medan 0.9 percent (mtm), and Denpasar 0.4 percent (mtm).

On the other hand, a number of cities still recorded monthly sales contraction, especially Bandung which fell 18.7 percent (mtm), Jakarta minus 3.6 percent (mtm), and Manado which contracted 2.9 percent (mtm).