BI Forecasts May 2026 Retail Sales Still Depressed, but Starting to Improve

Bank Indonesia (Photo: VOI)

Bank Indonesia (BI) estimates that retail sales performance in May 2026 will remain stable. This is reflected in the Real Sales Index (IPR) which is projected to reach 225.0 or contract by 3.2 percent on an annual basis (year on year/yoy).

Although still in the negative zone, this achievement shows improvement compared to the previous period which recorded a contraction of 3.7 percent (yoy).

The Executive Director of the BI Communication Department, Ramdan Denny Prakoso, explained that sales performance was supported by increased sales in a number of groups of goods.

Among them are the Group of Spare Parts and Accessories with an index of 157.5 or grew 16.6 percent (yoy), the Group of Other Household Equipment with an index of 84.5 or grew 1.8 percent (yoy), and the Group of Other Goods with an index of 85.0 or rose 0.7 percent (yoy).

Meanwhile, a number of other groups are still contracting, especially the Food, Beverage, and Tobacco Group which recorded an index of 318.4 or down 4.0 percent (yoy).

In addition, the Motor Vehicle Fuel Group was recorded to have decreased by 2.2 percent (yoy) with an index of 104.2, and the Information and Communication Equipment Group which experienced the deepest decline of 17.5 percent (yoy) with an index of 69.5.

"On a monthly basis, retail sales performance is also expected to record an improvement from a contraction of 11.6 percent (mtm) in April 2026 to minus 0.9 percent (mtm) in May 2026," he said in a statement, Thursday, June 11.

He explained that the improvement was driven by increased sales in the Information and Communication Equipment Group and the Other Household Equipment Group.

Meanwhile, the two groups grew by 2.2 percent (mtm) and 2.0 percent (mtm), after previously experiencing a contraction of 9.4 percent (mtm) and 5.9 percent (mtm).

According to him, the increase in public demand during the National Religious Great Day (HBKN) such as the Ascension of Jesus Christ, Eid al-Adha, and Vesak also supported the improvement.

On the other hand, the April 2026 IPR was recorded at 226.9. On an annual basis, several groups still recorded growth and became a support for sales, such as the Group of Spare Parts and Accessories which grew 14.7 percent (yoy) with an index of 157.5, the Group of Other Household Equipment with an index of 82.8 with a growth of 0.6 percent (yoy), and the Group of Cultural and Recreational Goods grew by 0.7 percent (yoy) with an index of 60.1.

However, a number of groups are still in the contraction zone, especially the Food, Beverage, and Tobacco Group with an index of 322.0 or a decrease of 3.8 percent (yoy), the Information and Communication Equipment Group with an index of 68.0 or down 26.4 percent (yoy), and the Subgroup of Sandang with an index of 88.9 which fell 7.0 percent (yoy).

On a monthly basis, retail sales in April 2026 also experienced a decline as the momentum of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr 1447 Hijriah ended. IPR April was recorded as contracting 11.6 percent (mtm) after the previous month grew 10.3 percent (mtm).

Meanwhile, the decline occurred in the majority of commodity groups, with the deepest contraction recorded in the Other Commodities Group of 16.6 percent (mtm), the Cultural and Recreational Goods Group of 12.5 percent (mtm), and the Food, Beverage, and Tobacco Group of 12.3 percent (mtm).