Trump's Attack Delay Effect, JCI Projected Limited Rebound

Illustration - Visitors take a picture of a screen showing the movement of the Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, Jakarta. ANTARA FOTO/Asprilla Dwi Adha/YU

JAKARTA - Financial economist and capital market practitioner Hans Kwee projects the Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) has the potential to strengthen limited to Wednesday, March 25, after the long holiday of Nyepi and Idulfitri 1447 Hijriah.

Hans said that the movement of the JCI was still overshadowed by selling pressure at the beginning of the session, but had the opportunity to recover as global sentiment began to ease.

"The opening of the JCI on Wednesday was overshadowed by potential selling pressure, but the recovery of the financial market after the delay of Trump's attack on Iran's electricity and energy infrastructure opened up opportunities for the JCI to move limited," he said when contacted by Antara, Tuesday, March 24.

He estimated that the JCI would move in the range of support 7,000-7,100 and resistance 7,250-7,349.

The main sentiment comes from the dynamics of the conflict between the United States and Iran. US President Donald Trump is said to have delayed for five days a plan to attack Iranian energy facilities, which gave a fresh wind to global markets.

During the Lebaran holiday, Hans explained that the global financial market experienced high volatility due to the uncertainty of the conflict between the US and Israel against Iran.

Tensions had risen after US threats over the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran then responded to with threats against energy infrastructure in the Gulf region.

However, on Monday (23/3), Trump announced a delay in the attack, which immediately prompted a strengthening of global stock exchanges, including on Wall Street and in Europe.

"The EU equity market strengthened after Trump's attack was delayed. The EU and Asian regions are very affected by energy prices due to dependence on imports through the Strait of Hormuz," said Hans.

However, he reminded that tensions had not completely eased. Iran reportedly launched attacks on a number of targets in the Middle East.

According to Hans, attacks on energy facilities, including gas plants in Qatar, have the potential to disrupt up to 17 percent of export supplies of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) in the next three to five years.

"This means that this war will have a long-term impact on the world's oil and gas supply," he said.

On the monetary policy side, Hans expects the US Federal Reserve to hold its benchmark interest rate throughout 2026, with a 25 basis point hike in December.

In the last meeting, the Fed maintained interest rates in the range of 3.50-3.75 percent. Meanwhile, global markets showed strength. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones indexes on Wall Street rose compactly, followed by the majority of European and Asian exchanges.

In the Asian region, the Nikkei, Shanghai, Hang Seng, and Straits Times indices also closed up on Tuesday (24/3) trading. As for the JCI at the last closing before the long holiday, Tuesday (17/3), strengthened 84.55 points or 1.20 percent to the level of 7,106.84.