US Inflation Data Stable at 2.4 Percent, INDODAX: Crypto Market Watches The Fed's Policy Direction

Vice President of INDODAX, Antony Kusuma. (Photo: INDODAX Doc.

JAKARTA - US inflation was recorded at a stable 2.4 percent year-on-year in February 2026 based on data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The figure is in line with market expectations and shows relatively controlled price pressures. This condition is of concern to investors because it can affect the direction of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy as well as sentiment in risky asset markets, including crypto.

Responding to these data, Vice President of INDODAX, Antony Kusuma, said that this condition also indicates that market participants are currently still in a waiting phase for certainty about the direction of the United States monetary policy, especially the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike.

"The February 2026 inflation figure of 2.4 percent is in line with market expectations, so investor sentiment tends to be more stable. In this situation, market participants will usually focus more on the direction of the Fed's interest rate policy because monetary policy is still the main factor affecting liquidity and the movement of risky assets including cryptocurrencies. For now, the market tends to be in a waiting phase while paying attention to the development of the next economic data," said Antony, in a written statement, Thursday, March 12.

Based on the latest report, the United States' monthly inflation in February was recorded at 0.3 percent, slightly higher than the 0.2 percent increase in January. Meanwhile, core inflation (core CPI) which does not include food and energy components was recorded at 0.2 percent on a monthly basis and 2.5 percent on an annual basis, in line with analysts' projections. The stability of this inflation figure strengthens the view that price pressures in the US economy are still relatively under control, although it remains above the 2 percent inflation target set by the Federal Reserve.

The expectations of monetary policy are also reflected in market projections compiled through the CME FedWatch Tool, which shows a nearly 99 percent chance that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at the March meeting. Meanwhile, the probability of a rate cut of around 25 basis points in April is still relatively small, around 11%. This condition makes the crypto market tends to move more defensively while waiting for certainty of the direction of the next monetary policy.

In the crypto market, investor response to the release of inflation data is relatively limited. After the report was released, Bitcoin was traded in the range of US$69,000 with relatively moderate movement in the last 24 hours. This reflects the attitude of market participants who are still waiting for the development of the next economic data as well as the direction of global monetary policy.

In addition to the inflation factor, geopolitical dynamics and energy prices are also a concern for investors. In recent weeks, oil price volatility has increased as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased. This energy price movement has the potential to affect inflationary pressures in the next period, as well as impacting economic activity more broadly. Therefore, investors tend to pay attention to various economic indicators before making investment decisions.

In line with this, INDODAX also urges investors to continue to prioritize disciplined risk management and conduct independent research (DYOR), as well as consider gradual investment strategies such as Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) to face the volatility of the crypto market. Through various educational initiatives, INDODAX continues to encourage the improvement of crypto asset literacy in Indonesia while providing a safe and transparent trading platform for all users.