OJK Survey: Banking Performance is Expected to Remain Solid in the First Quarter of 2026

Head of the Banking Supervisory Executive of the Financial Services Authority (OJK) Dian Ediana Rae. (Photo: Doc. Antara)

JAKARTA - The results of the OJK Banking Business Orientation Survey (SBPO) show that banking performance is believed to remain solid with risks under control, reflected by the Banking Business Orientation Index (IBP) for the first quarter of 2026 which was recorded at 56 (optimistic zone).

This optimism is driven by the projected growth in banking performance and the belief that banks will still be able to manage risks amid expectations of rising inflation and exchange rate weakness.

The Head of the OJK Banking Supervisory Executive, Dian Ediana Rae, noted in his statement that respondents had great concern about the global conditions that had lasted for a long time (prolonged), and even worsened, and the implications it had on Indonesia's economic performance.

"Although various banking indicators are currently in a resilient position, banks still need a vibrant business ecosystem to grow well," said Dian, quoted by Antara, Tuesday, March 10.

The prediction of a weakening exchange rate and an increasing inflation rate pulls down the Index of Expectations of Macroeconomic Conditions (IKM) in the first quarter of 2026 so that it enters the pessimistic zone or is at 45.

The belief that the increase in the inflation rate is driven by seasonal factors such as Ramadan, Eid al-Fitr, and the Chinese New Year celebrations, which increase the increase in the prices of goods and services.

There is a low-based effect factor from the previous year, where last year there was a discount on electricity tariffs that was not re-enacted in the first quarter of 2026.

Furthermore, the exchange rate is expected to weaken as global geopolitical tensions remain high. However, Indonesia's economic growth is expected to accelerate driven by an estimated increase in public consumption in the first quarter of 2026.

The majority of respondents believe that banking risks in the first quarter of 2026 can still be maintained and controlled.

This is evident from the Risk Perception Index (IPR) of 57 or in the optimistic zone in line with the belief that credit quality remains good, the Net Foreign Exchange Position (PDN) at a low level with assets and foreign exchange bills (foreign exchange) greater than foreign exchange liabilities (long position).

Liquidity risk is also expected to be maintained, driven by expectations of banking liquidity instruments and third-party funds (DPK) which will still grow.

In line with the higher DPK growth forecast compared to the credit disbursement growth forecast, net cash flow in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to increase. In addition, cash inflows are also expected to increase in line with the inflow of Regional Government funds which will start in the first quarter of 2026.

Furthermore, expectations for banking performance in the first quarter of 2026 are also at an optimistic level with a Performance Expectation Index (IEK) of 67.

The optimism for growth in the first quarter of 2026 is driven by the expectation that credit will still grow in line with increasing credit demand and supported by the bank's efforts to expand credit on the available pipeline.

The processing industry, as the economic sector that dominates banking credit distribution, grew by 6.60 percent (year on year/yoy) in January 2026, and is projected to remain a driver of future credit growth.

In terms of fund-raising, respondents estimate that in the first quarter of 2026, DPK is also expected to grow in line with the bank's efforts to obtain sources of funds to support credit growth and maintain liquidity.

For information, the SBPO was carried out in January 2026 involving 93 respondent banks, whose total asset share reached 94.17 percent of the total assets of commercial banks based on the December 2025 data period.

In this SBPO period, OJK also collected information from respondents regarding the global and Indonesian economic outlook in 2026 and the growth of SME loans.

The global economy is expected to grow moderately driven by high uncertainty and global geopolitics. Meanwhile, most of the banks surveyed are optimistic that SME loans in the first quarter of 2026 will grow with an increasing share compared to total loans.