JAKARTA - Minister of Finance (Menkeu) Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa believes that the Indonesian economy will enter a healthy expansion phase in the next seven to ten years or at least until 2033.
"Our prospects will be good this year, we are trying to push it to 6 percent (economic growth). In the next ten years, we seem to be entering a healthy expansion period. We can expand it until 2033," said Purbaya after the Indonesia Economic Outlook 2026 event at Wisma Danantara, Jakarta, Friday, February 13, reported by ANTARA.
Along with the expansion phase, Purbaya also believes that more and more jobs are available. This optimistic economic direction, he emphasized, can certainly be achieved by prioritizing good fiscal management.
The government will encourage state spending in a measured manner while ensuring that the deficit ratio to GDP is below the 3 percent limit. In addition, the debt ratio will be maintained at a stable level and directed to gradually decline.
"I think later when the economy is better, our tax and customs revenue will also be good, so that we can slowly push our debt down," he said.
In the panel discussion session, Purbaya explained that the economic cycle generally moves from the expansion phase to recession, then back to expansion. The expansion phase usually lasts between seven to ten years, then followed by a recession of about one year before growing again.
He noted that Indonesia experienced an expansion phase in 2009 to 2020, then entered a recession due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and is now back in an expansion phase.
The leading economic index (LEI) which projects the direction of the economy in the next six to 12 months, explained Purbaya, had declined but in recent months it had begun to show an upward trend. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index (CEI) which reflects the current economic conditions has also begun to move up.
Purbaya said the increase in the gradient of both indices indicates that the economy will enter a faster growth phase. With the right direction and management of policies, he is optimistic that this momentum can continue until 2033.
He also asked the public not to worry about the medium-term economic outlook.
"So it seems, we have a high possibility of bringing the Indonesian economy to the Golden Indonesia, not the gloomy Indonesia," concluded Purbaya.
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